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Persistence in International Monthly Arrivals in the Canary Islands

Author

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  • J. Cunado
  • L.A. Gil-Alana
  • F. Perez de Gracia

Abstract

This study analyses persistence in international monthly arrivals to the Canary Islands using a model based on fractional integration and seasonal autoregressions. Thus, the estimate of the fractional differencing parameter gives an indication of the long-run evolution of the series, while the AR coefficient refers to the short-run seasonal dynamics. The authors use both aggregate and disaggregate data by location of origin and island destination. The results show that the aggregate series corresponding to the total number of international arrivals in the Canary Islands is an I( d ) process, with d slightly above 0.5, and the most persistent arrivals are those coming from Scandinavia and travelling to La Palma.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Cunado & L.A. Gil-Alana & F. Perez de Gracia, 2008. "Persistence in International Monthly Arrivals in the Canary Islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 123-129, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:123-129
    DOI: 10.5367/000000008783554811
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2008. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 621-636.
    2. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    3. Mita Bhattacharya & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1485-1490.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The structure of tourist expenditure in Fiji: evidence from unit root structural break tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1157-1161.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis A Gil-Alana & James E Payne, 2022. "Persistence, seasonality, and fractional integration within a nonlinear framework: Evidence from US citizens’ overseas travel," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 654-660, May.
    2. Luis A Gil-Alana & à gueda Gil-López & Elena San Román, 2021. "Tourism persistence in Spain: National versus international visitors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 614-625, June.
    3. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    4. James E Payne & Luis A Gil-Alana, 2018. "Data measurement and the change in persistence of tourist arrivals to the United States in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(1), pages 41-50, February.

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