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Long range dependence in stock market returns

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  • Christos Christodoulou-Volos
  • Fotios Siokis

Abstract

Many authors have investigated the possibility of long-range dependence, or long memory, in asset returns, but very little evidence has been found for long memory in either stock or exchange rate returns. This paper examines the presence of long-range dependence in a sample of 34 stock index returns using the semiparametric methods suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) and Robinson (1995). The results provide significant and robust evidence of fractional dynamics in most major and small stock markets over the sample periods. Depending on the test used, statistically significant long memory is detected in approximately 65% of the series. It appears that most stock returns are long-term dependent, suggesting stock market inefficiency and a high degree of predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Christodoulou-Volos & Fotios Siokis, 2006. "Long range dependence in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1331-1338.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:18:p:1331-1338
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100600829519
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    8. Marco Bee & Fabrizio Miorelli, 2010. "Dynamic VaR models and the Peaks over Threshold method for market risk measurement: an empirical investigation during a financial crisis," Department of Economics Working Papers 1009, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
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