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Examining the behaviour of visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 different countries

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar

Abstract

Testing the integrational properties of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy, for if visitor arrivals are integrated of order one (nonstationary) then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. However, if visitor arrivals are found to be integrated or order zero (stationary) then this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. In this paper we examine whether visitor arrivals to Australia are stationary or nonstationary, using the recently developed univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier tests, and the Im, Pesaran and Shin [Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 1997. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Manuscript, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge; Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 2003. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74] panel t-test. Our exercise involves Australia's 28 tourist source markets. Our main findings are: (1) that visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 tourist source markets are stationary, implying that any shock will have only a temporary effect and (2) the second structural break, which mainly coincides with the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Asian financial crisis, has slowed down the growth rate in visitor arrivals to Australia from 22 out of 28 (79%) of the tourism source markets.

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Examining the behaviour of visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 different countries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 751-761, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:42:y:2008:i:5:p:751-761
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    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2019. "How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(24), pages 2639-2653, May.
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    5. David Tan & Kan Tsui, 2017. "Investigating causality in international air freight and business travel: The case of Australia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(5), pages 1178-1193, April.
    6. Wanke, Peter & Chen, Zhongfei & Dong, Qichen & Antunes, Jorge, 2021. "Transportation Sustainability, Macroeconomics, and Endogeneity in China: A Hybrid Neural-Markowitz-Variable Reduction Approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Koo, Tay T.R. & Tan, David T. & Duval, David Timothy, 2013. "Direct air transport and demand interaction: A vector error-correction model approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 14-19.

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