The Determinants and Synergies of Livelihood Choices Across Climate-vulnerable Regions: An Empirical Analysis from Rural Bangladesh

This study explores the role of diverse climatic vulnerabilities and socio- economic variables in explaining Bangladeshi rural households’ livelihood choices and the synergies that exist across the choices. We develop a multivariate probit model for analysing a dataset of 5,604 households that is representative of rural Bangladesh. The findings reveal a landscape where agriculture-based strategies predominate, with households strategically combining various approaches. Households complement agriculture-based strategies, while substituting beyond agriculture-based strategies. Climate stressors such as flood, salinity, river erosion, drought, storms and cyclones induce notable shifts in livelihood choices. Among these, the most prominent is the substantial influence of storm and cyclone vulnerability. Migration is more prevalent in areas susceptible to salinity, storms and cyclones, while casual labour prevails in drought-prone and flood-vulnerable regions. Households residing in the economically marginalized and environmentally vulnerable feed-the-future (FtF) zone make distinct decisions regarding income strategies compared to their counterparts in other rural areas across the country. Households in this zone exhibit a higher likelihood of opting for specific agriculture-based income sources and casual labour, while self-employment, migration and salaried jobs are less favoured. Furthermore, we elucidate the pivotal role of infrastructure, information access and institutional factors in shaping income sources. Households in different divisions make distinct livelihood choices, especially in agriculture. Ultimately, the findings advocate for precise interventions tailored to climate vulnerabilities. This includes enhancements in road connectivity, the utilization of mobile banking and the provision of extension services, with a specific focus on geographically marginalized and climate-vulnerable regions.