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Ecological Inference and Entropy-Maximizing: An Alternative Estimation Procedure for Split-Ticket Voting

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  • Johnston, Ron
  • Pattie, Charles

Abstract

Publication of King's A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem has rekindled interest in the estimation of unknown cell values in two- and three-dimensional matrices from knowledge of the marginal sums. This paper outlines an entropy-maximizing (EM) procedure which employs more constraints than King's EI method and produces mathematical rather than statistical procedures: the estimates are maximum-likelihood values. The mathematics are outlined, and the procedure's use illustrated with a study of ticket-splitting at New Zealand's first (1996) general election using the mixed-member proportional representation system, for which official figures provide a check against the EM estimate of the number voting a straight party ticket in each constituency.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnston, Ron & Pattie, Charles, 2000. "Ecological Inference and Entropy-Maximizing: An Alternative Estimation Procedure for Split-Ticket Voting," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 333-345, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:8:y:2000:i:04:p:333-345_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Johnston, Ron & Gschwend, Thomas & Pattie, Charles, 2004. "On Estimates of Split-Ticket Voting: EI and EMax," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-40, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Baodong Liu, 2007. "EI Extended Model and the Fear of Ecological Fallacy," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(1), pages 3-25, August.
    4. Rosa Bernardini Papalia, 2011. "An information theoretic approach to ecological inference in presence of spatial heterogeneity and dependence," ERSA conference papers ersa11p317, European Regional Science Association.

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