IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/sagope/v13y2023i2p21582440231177270.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating Working Life Expectancy: A Comparison of Multistate Models

Author

Listed:
  • Holendro Singh Chungkham
  • Robin S. Högnäs
  • Jenny Head
  • Paola Zaninotto
  • Hugo Westerlund

Abstract

Increases in retirement ages make it particularly pressing to better understand how long people will work. Working life expectancy (WLE) is a useful measure for this and the current paper assesses the tools, that is, software packages, available to assess it. We do this using data from the English Longitudinal Survey on Ageing (ELSA, 2003–2018) and multistate models to estimate WLE stratified by sex and socioeconomic status. Men’s versus women’s WLEs were slightly higher at all ages. Estimates were similar in ELECT and SPACE by both sex and socioeconomic status. WLEs were comparatively higher from IMaCh, ranging from approximately 0.28 to 1.49 years. Life expectancy estimates from IMaCh were also higher compared to SPACE and ELECT. Using multistate models to estimate WLE provides a useful indication of the actual expected length of working life. More research is needed to better understand why estimates from IMaCh differed from ELECT and SPACE.

Suggested Citation

  • Holendro Singh Chungkham & Robin S. Högnäs & Jenny Head & Paola Zaninotto & Hugo Westerlund, 2023. "Estimating Working Life Expectancy: A Comparison of Multistate Models," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:13:y:2023:i:2:p:21582440231177270
    DOI: 10.1177/21582440231177270
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/21582440231177270
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/21582440231177270?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Dudel & María Andrée López Gómez & Fernando G. Benavides & Mikko Myrskylä, 2018. "The Length of Working Life in Spain: Levels, Recent Trends, and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 769-791, December.
    2. Taina Leinonen & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2018. "Working Life and Retirement Expectancies at Age 50 by Social Class: Period and Cohort Trends and Projections for Finland," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 73(2), pages 302-313.
    3. Jackson, Christopher, 2011. "Multi-State Models for Panel Data: The msm Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 38(i08).
    4. Edward M. Foster & Gary R. Skoog, 2004. "The Markov Assumption for Worklife Expectancy," Journal of Forensic Economics, National Association of Forensic Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 167-183, April.
    5. Frans Willekens & Hein Putter, 2014. "Software for multistate analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(14), pages 381-420.
    6. Eileen Crimmins & Mark Hayward & Yasuhiko Saito, 1994. "Changing mortality and morbidity rates and the health status and life expectancy of the older population," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(1), pages 159-175, February.
    7. Ariane Ophir, 2022. "The Paid and Unpaid Working Life Expectancy at 50 in Europe," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 77(4), pages 769-779.
    8. Liming Cai & Mark D. Hayward & Yasuhiko Saito & James Lubitz & Aaron Hagedorn & Eileen Crimmins, 2010. "Estimation of multi-state life table functions and their variability from complex survey data using the SPACE Program," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(6), pages 129-158.
    9. Agnes Lievre & Nicolas Brouard & Christopher Heathcote, 2003. "The Estimation Of Health Expectancies From Cross-Longitudinal Surveys," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 211-248.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bettina Falckenthal & Cláudia Figueiredo & Ana Palma-Moreira & Manuel Au-Yong-Oliveira, 2024. "Unretirement: Motivational Factors Among Financially Independent Seniors and Their Potential to Contribute to Organizational Productivity, Knowledge Transfer and Corporate Resilience," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-17, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hal Caswell & Silke van Daalen, 2021. "Healthy longevity from incidence-based models: More kinds of health than stars in the sky," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(13), pages 397-452.
    2. Liming Cai & Mark D. Hayward & Yasuhiko Saito & James Lubitz & Aaron Hagedorn & Eileen Crimmins, 2010. "Estimation of multi-state life table functions and their variability from complex survey data using the SPACE Program," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(6), pages 129-158.
    3. Christian Dudel, 2021. "Expanding the Markov Chain Toolbox: Distributions of Occupation Times and Waiting Times," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 401-428, February.
    4. Michel Guillot & Yan Yu, 2009. "Estimating health expectancies from two cross-sectional surveys," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(17), pages 503-534.
    5. Piccarreta, Raffaella & Bonetti, Marco, 2019. "Assessing and comparing models for sequence data by microsimulation (with Supplementary Material)," SocArXiv 3mcfp, Center for Open Science.
    6. repec:idg:wpaper:awltfxmuxmqcvuzmm9ui is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Frans Willekens & Hein Putter, 2014. "Software for multistate analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(14), pages 381-420.
    8. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    9. Mariona Lozano & Elisenda Rentería, 2019. "Work in Transition: Labour Market Life Expectancy and Years Spent in Precarious Employment in Spain 1986–2016," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 185-200, August.
    10. Qiu, Qinjing & Kawai, Reiichiro, 2022. "A decoupling principle for Markov-modulated chains," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    11. Jackson, Christopher, 2016. "flexsurv: A Platform for Parametric Survival Modeling in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 70(i08).
    12. Vernon T. Farewell & Li Su & Christopher Jackson, 2019. "Partially hidden multi-state modelling of a prolonged disease state defined by a composite outcome," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 696-711, October.
    13. Marc Luy, 2020. "Understanding the Cross-Sectional Association Between Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Years: The CroHaM Hypothesis," VID Working Papers 2003, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    14. Gaffney, Edward & McCann, Fergal, 2019. "The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9," ESRB Working Paper Series 92, European Systemic Risk Board.
    15. Zachary Zimmer & Yasuhiko Saito & Olga Theou & Clove Haviva & Kenneth Rockwood, 2021. "Education, wealth, and duration of life expected in various degrees of frailty," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 393-404, September.
    16. Chi-Tsun Chiu, 2019. "Living arrangements and disability-free life expectancy in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-16, February.
    17. Biagini, Francesca & Groll, Andreas & Widenmann, Jan, 2013. "Intensity-based premium evaluation for unemployment insurance products," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 302-316.
    18. Irene Albarrán Lozano & Pablo J. Alonso-González & José Javier Núñez-Velázquez, 2021. "Estimation of Life Expectancy for Dependent Population in a Multi-State Context," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-13, October.
    19. Touraine, Célia & Gerds, Thomas A. & Joly, Pierre, 2017. "SmoothHazard: An R Package for Fitting Regression Models to Interval-Censored Observations of Illness-Death Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 79(i07).
    20. William Lim & Gaurav Khemka & David Pitt & Bridget Browne, 2019. "A method for calculating the implied no-recovery three-state transition matrix using observable population mortality incidence and disability prevalence rates among the elderly," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 245-282, September.
    21. James N. Laditka & Douglas A. Wolf, 2004. "Duration Data from the National Long-Term Care Survey: Foundation for a Dynamic Multiple-Indicator Model of ADL Dependency," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 65, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:13:y:2023:i:2:p:21582440231177270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.