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Working Life and Retirement Expectancies at Age 50 by Social Class: Period and Cohort Trends and Projections for Finland

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  • Taina Leinonen
  • Pekka Martikainen
  • Mikko Myrskylä

Abstract

ObjectivesThe balance between the amount of time spent in work and in retirement underlies the long-term sustainability of the social security system. We examined socioeconomic differences in how increasing longevity is distributed between labor market statuses in Finland.MethodWe used register data and the Sullivan method to analyze life expectancy at age 50 spent in different labor market statuses over the period 1989–2012 and across cohorts born in 1938–1953. We projected the future mortality and labor market participation rates of partially observed cohorts.ResultsBoth working life expectancy at age 50 and the share of remaining life spent in work have increased across periods following the recession of the early 1990s, and across successive cohorts. The trends were similar across the social classes, but there were large differences in the numbers of years spent in various states: for the most recent period and the youngest cohort, we find that compared with upper non-manual employees, male and female manual workers were expected to spend 3.6–3.7 fewer years in work, 1.7–4.7 fewer years in statutory retirement, and 3.2–3.9 more years in other forms of nonemployment.DiscussionOur finding that the share of remaining life at age 50 spent in work is increasing implies that pressure on the welfare system is not as severe as is commonly thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Taina Leinonen & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2018. "Working Life and Retirement Expectancies at Age 50 by Social Class: Period and Cohort Trends and Projections for Finland," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 73(2), pages 302-313.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:geronb:v:73:y:2018:i:2:p:302-313.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/geronb/gbv104
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dudel, Christian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2020. "Cohort trends in working life expectancies at age 50 in the United States: a register-based study using social security administration data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106256, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Angelo Lorenti & Jessica Nisén & Letizia Mencarini & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Gendered parenthood-employment gaps in midlife: a demographic perspective across three different welfare systems," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Holendro Singh Chungkham & Robin S. Högnäs & Jenny Head & Paola Zaninotto & Hugo Westerlund, 2023. "Estimating Working Life Expectancy: A Comparison of Multistate Models," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, May.
    4. Christian Dudel & Elke Loichinger & Sebastian Klüsener & Harun Sulak & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "The extension of late working life in Germany: trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Lorenti, Angelo & Jessica, Nisen & Mencarini, Letizia & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2023. "Gendered parenthood-employment gaps in midlife: a demographic perspective across three different welfare systems," SocArXiv gmqd9, Center for Open Science.
    6. Jiaxin Shi & Christian Dudel & Christiaan Monden & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2022. "Inequalities in retirement lifespan in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Christian Dudel, 2021. "Expanding the Markov Chain Toolbox: Distributions of Occupation Times and Waiting Times," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 401-428, February.
    8. Jiaxin Shi & Christian Dudel & Christiaan Monden & Alyson van Raalte, 2023. "Inequalities in Retirement Life Span in the United States," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 78(5), pages 891-901.

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