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Dynamic Scoring: An Assessment of Fiscal Closing Assumptions

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  • Rachel Moore
  • Brandon Pecoraro

Abstract

Analysis of fiscal policy changes using general equilibrium models with forward-looking agents typically requires a counterfactual adjustment to some fiscal instrument in order to achieve the debt sustainability implied by the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. The choice of fiscal instrument can induce economic behavior unrelated to the policy change in models where Ricardian Equivalence does not hold. In this article, we use an overlapping generations framework to examine the effects of alternative fiscal closing assumptions on projected changes to economic aggregates following a change in tax policy, assessing the extent to which the bias associated with a particular fiscal instrument can be mitigated. While we find quantitative differences in projected macroeconomic activity across alternative fiscal instruments, these differences tend to shrink as the closing date is delayed. Ultimately, the choice of fiscal instrument becomes relatively unimportant if fiscal closing can be delayed sufficiently into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachel Moore & Brandon Pecoraro, 2020. "Dynamic Scoring: An Assessment of Fiscal Closing Assumptions," Public Finance Review, , vol. 48(3), pages 340-353, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:48:y:2020:i:3:p:340-353
    DOI: 10.1177/1091142120915759
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of modeling the Internal Revenue Code in a heterogeneous-agent framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 72-91.
    2. Zodrow, George R. & Diamond, John W., 2013. "Dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium Models and the Analysis of Tax Policy: The Diamond–Zodrow Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 743-813, Elsevier.
    3. Richard W. Evans & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kerk L. Phillips, 2012. "Game Over: Simulating Unsustainable Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 177-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach, 2005. "Dynamic Scoring: An Introduction to the Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 421-425, May.
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    8. Jaeger Nelson & Kerk Phillips, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Reducing OASI Benefits: A Comparison of Seven Overlapping-Generations Models," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 72(4), pages 671-692, December.
    9. Rosanne Altshuler & Nicholas Bull & John Diamond & Tim Dowd & Pamela Moomau, 2005. "The Role of Dynamic Scoring in the Federal Budget Process: Closing the Gap between Theory and Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 432-436, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2019. "Modeling the Internal Revenue Code in a heterogeneous-agent framework: An application to TCJA," MPRA Paper 93110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2023. "Quantitative analysis of a wealth tax for the United States: Exclusions and expenditures," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of modeling the Internal Revenue Code in a heterogeneous-agent framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 72-91.
    4. Rachel Moore & Brandon Pecoraro, 2021. "A Tale of Two Bases: Progressive Taxation of Capital and Labor Income," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(3), pages 335-391, May.
    5. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2021. "Quantitative Analysis of a Wealth Tax in the United States: Exclusions, Evasion, and Expenditures," MPRA Paper 109120, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic scoring; fiscal closing assumptions; sustainable fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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