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The fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia

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  • Goryunov, Evgeny
  • Kotlikoff, Lawrence
  • Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey

Abstract

The fiscal gap is an indicator of the long-term balance of public finance and is calculated based on the intertemporal government budget constraint, which links government tax revenues and expenditures over long intervals. The estimate of the fiscal gap for the Russian general government has been determined according to three scenarios with varying assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth rates, oil and gas prices and the quantity of extractable reserves. The calculations show that the current fiscal policy cannot provide for the stability of public finance in the long run. The main factors of budget imbalances are the growth of pension and health care expenditures caused by demographic trends and the gradual decline in tax receipts from the oil and gas sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Goryunov, Evgeny & Kotlikoff, Lawrence & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey, 2015. "The fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 240-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:3:p:240-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Valery P. Chichkanov & Elena V. Chistova & Alexander N. Tyrsin, 2017. "How to Raise Pensions by Legalizing Informal Employment," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(4), pages 89-99.
    2. Elena Stupnikova & Tatyana Sukhadolets, 2019. "Construction Sector Role in Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Empirical Data from Russia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Kudrin, Alexey & Sokolov, Ilya, 2017. "Fiscal maneuver and restructuring of the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 221-239.
    4. Huseynov, Nijat, 2017. "The Classification of Public Expenditure in Post-Soviet Union States and OECD Member Countries," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 62(3), pages 380-400.
    5. Kudrin, Alexey & Sokolov, Ilya, 2017. "Fiscal maneuver and restructuring of the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 221-239.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; fiscal sustainability; demographic forecast; oil and gas revenues; pension system.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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