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Fiscal Gap: an Estimate for Russia

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  • E. Goryunov
  • L. Kotlikoff
  • S. Sinelnikov-Murylev

Abstract

Fiscal gap is an indicator of long run sustainability of government finance. It is derived from intertemporal budget constraint which connects flows of budget outlays and receipts aggregated along decades. In order to get an estimate of Russia’s general government fiscal gap we consider three scenarios which are based on different assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth, extractable reserves of oil and natural gas, long-term price of oil and natural gas, etc. Estimated value of fiscal gap implies that current fiscal policy cannot provide budget sustainability in the long run. There are two major factors of the budget imbalances: rising health and pension expenditures due to demographic trends and shrinking role of tax revenues from the energy sector due to extraction growth rate projected to be lower than GDP growth. This study is an extension of (Goryunov et al., 2013).

Suggested Citation

  • E. Goryunov & L. Kotlikoff & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev, 2015. "Fiscal Gap: an Estimate for Russia," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 7.
    • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2015:id:92
    DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2015-7-5-25
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    2. Elena Stupnikova & Tatyana Sukhadolets, 2019. "Construction Sector Role in Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Empirical Data from Russia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Kudrin, Alexey & Sokolov, Ilya, 2017. "Fiscal maneuver and restructuring of the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 221-239.
    4. Huseynov, Nijat, 2017. "The Classification of Public Expenditure in Post-Soviet Union States and OECD Member Countries," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 62(3), pages 380-400.
    5. Kudrin, Alexey & Sokolov, Ilya, 2017. "Fiscal maneuver and restructuring of the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 221-239.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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