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Joining forces: Social coalitions and democratic revolutions

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  • Sirianne Dahlum

    (Department of Political Science, University of Oslo)

Abstract

When are mass protest movements able to overthrow authoritarian regimes and promote democratic transitions? This article considers whether socially diverse protest movements are more conducive to democratization than movements restricted to one or a few social groups. Coalitions across social groups should impose higher costs on authoritarian regimes through access to a wide range of resources, strategies and sources of leverage. Heterogenous protest coalitions are also more likely to socially overlap with regime supporters and the security forces, which should encourage regime splits and defections. But, diverse protest movements may also be more vulnerable to fragmentation and in-fighting, which may particularly threaten prospects of democracy in the aftermath of an authoritarian regime breakdown. Analyzing new global data mapping the social group composition of anti-regime protest campaigns from 1900 to 2013, the article finds consistent evidence that socially diverse protest movements are more likely to overthrow authoritarian regimes, and this is not driven by protest size. Socially diverse movements are also more likely to end in the short- and long-run establishment of more democratic institutions, suggesting that heterogenous protest movements’ potential for bringing about democracy is more promising than expected. These findings speak to the importance of securing broad and not only large mass movements to promote democracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sirianne Dahlum, 2023. "Joining forces: Social coalitions and democratic revolutions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 42-57, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:60:y:2023:i:1:p:42-57
    DOI: 10.1177/00223433221138614
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, October.
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    7. Erica Chenoweth & Margherita Belgioioso, 2019. "The physics of dissent and the effects of movement momentum," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 1088-1095, October.
    8. Felix S Bethke & Jonathan Pinckney, 2021. "Non-violent resistance and the quality of democracy," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(5), pages 503-523, September.
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    10. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226731445 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Erica Chenoweth & Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, 2023. "Guest Editors’ introduction: Nonviolent resistance and its discontents," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 3-8, January.

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