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International support networks and the calculus of uprising

Author

Listed:
  • Jaime A Jackson

    (Department of Political Science, 8789University of California Davis)

  • Belgin San-Akca

    (Department of International Relations, 52979Koç University)

  • Zeev Maoz

    (Department of Political Science, 8789University of California Davis)

Abstract

How does the anticipation of external support for both opposition groups and governments affect the likelihood and form (violent vs. nonviolent) of uprising within states? We develop a novel approach to address these issues, building on a network perspective. Our model suggests that both opposition groups and governments’ strategies are affected by an anticipation of the degree and nature of expected support by external parties (states and non-state actors). Using a set of indicators – including cultural affinity, strategic factors, and normative values – we develop a unique measure of anticipated support based on the potential support networks of target states and their opposition in order to evaluate our hypotheses. We argue that the anticipated balance of support for opposition and governments affects: (a) the likelihood of uprising and (b) the principal – violent or nonviolent – strategy used by the opposition group. We analyze data on violent and nonviolent civil conflicts over the period 1946–2010. We find that when the balance of anticipated support favors the opposition over their target government, the onset of an uprising is more likely. Specifically, the type of anticipated support has implications for whether a violent or nonviolent uprising occurs. These findings provide new insights into the role external support can play even before conflict occurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaime A Jackson & Belgin San-Akca & Zeev Maoz, 2020. "International support networks and the calculus of uprising," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(5), pages 632-647, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:57:y:2020:i:5:p:632-647
    DOI: 10.1177/0022343319885181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Salehyan, Idean & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Cunningham, David E., 2011. "Explaining External Support for Insurgent Groups," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(4), pages 709-744, October.
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    4. Idean Salehyan, 2008. "The Externalities of Civil Strife: Refugees as a Source of International Conflict," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 787-801, October.
    5. Brett Leeds & Jeffrey Ritter & Sara Mitchell & Andrew Long, 2002. "Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815-1944," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 237-260, July.
    6. Timur Kuran, 1989. "Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 41-74, April.
    7. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Dominic Rohner, 2009. "Beyond greed and grievance: feasibility and civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 1-27, January.
    8. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Sambanis, Nicholas, 2000. "External interventions and the duration of civil wars," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2433, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sooyeon Kang, 2023. "Upping the ante without taking up arms: Why mass movements escalate demands," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 73-87, January.
    2. Ilker Kalin & Marie Olson Lounsbery & Frederic Pearson, 2022. "Major power politics and non-violent resistance movements," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(3), pages 241-265, May.

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