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Expectations, Rivalries, and Civil War Duration

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  • Seden Akcinaroglu
  • Elizabeth Radziszewski

Abstract

What role have states involved in a rivalry with another state played in shaping the dynamics of their rival's civil wars? How can the existence of an interstate rival affect rebel calculations whether to continue fighting or stop the violence and negotiate? And to what extent does rival intervention differ in its impact on civil war duration from interventions by other actors? This paper argues that the existence of an interstate rival can prolong conflict even when actual aid has not been granted. The mere expectation of assistance from a rival, whether in the form of military intervention or provision of funds, can deter rebels from seeking settlement and motivate fighting at least for some time until resources are depleted. We estimate conditions under which interstate rivals are most likely to intervene in civil wars. We then argue that conditions conducive to rival intervention serve as a base upon which rebels form their expectations of forthcoming aid. We use predicted probabilities from the probit and the multinomial logit model to calculate expectations of rival intervention. Finally, using duration analysis we show that expectations of rival intervention can substantially prolong civil wars especially in a transparent society.

Suggested Citation

  • Seden Akcinaroglu & Elizabeth Radziszewski, 2005. "Expectations, Rivalries, and Civil War Duration," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 349-374, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:31:y:2005:i:4:p:349-374
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620500303449
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Gries & Claus-Jochen Haake, 2016. "An Economic Theory of 'Destabilization War'," Working Papers CIE 95, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    2. Colin Hannigan, 2019. "Toward a holistic networks approach to strategic third-party intervention: A literature review," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 277-292, September.
    3. Shweta Moorthy & Robert Brathwaite, 2019. "Refugees and rivals: The international dynamics of refugee flows," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 131-148, March.
    4. Michael G. Findley & Josiah F. Marineau, 2015. "Lootable resources and third-party intervention into civil wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(5), pages 465-486, November.
    5. Amegashie J. Atsu, 2011. "On Third-Party Intervention in Conflicts: An Economist's View," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-10, April.
    6. Jaime A Jackson & Belgin San-Akca & Zeev Maoz, 2020. "International support networks and the calculus of uprising," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(5), pages 632-647, September.
    7. Gries, Thomas & Haake, Claus-Jochen, 2016. "An Economic Theory of 'Destabilization War' '- Compromise for Peace versus Conventional, Guerilla, or Terrorist Warfare," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Patricia L. Sullivan & Johannes Karreth, 2015. "The conditional impact of military intervention on internal armed conflict outcomes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(3), pages 269-288, July.
    9. Gries Thomas & Haake Claus-Jochen, 2016. "Towards an Economic Theory of Destabilization War: Ideology and Beliefs, Indivisibles and Time Preferences," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 377-384, December.
    10. Ursula E. Daxecker, 2011. "Rivalry, Instability, and the Probability of International Conflict1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(5), pages 543-565, November.

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