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Adaptively Rational Retrospective Voting

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Bendor

    (Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, bendor_jonathan@gsb.stanford.edu)

  • Sunil Kumar

    (Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Kumar_Sunil@gsb.stanford.edu)

  • David A. Siegel

    (Florida State University, iegel@fsu.edu)

Abstract

Since the seminal work of Key (1966), Kramer (1971), and Nordhaus (1975), retrospective voting has been a major component of voting theory. However, although these views are alive empirically (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000; Franzese, 2002; Hibbs, 2006), most theorizing assumes rational citizens. We suspect that Key had a less heroic view of voter cognition, and we formalize his verbal theory accordingly. Our model is based on two axioms: if an incumbent performed well (above voter A’s aspiration) then A becomes more likely to vote for the incumbent; A is less likely to do so if the incumbent performed poorly (below A’s aspiration). We then prove that such citizens, though lacking ideologies, endogenously develop partisan voting tendencies. This result is robust against perceptual errors (citizens evaluating an incumbent’s performance incorrectly). We also show that the best-informed voters, who perceive performance most accurately, are the most partisan.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Bendor & Sunil Kumar & David A. Siegel, 2010. "Adaptively Rational Retrospective Voting," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 22(1), pages 26-63, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:26-63
    DOI: 10.1177/0951629809347581
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Ansolabehere, Stephen & Rodden, Jonathan & Snyder, James M., 2008. "The Strength of Issues: Using Multiple Measures to Gauge Preference Stability, Ideological Constraint, and Issue Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(2), pages 215-232, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Andrés Gallego, 2007. "La reciprocidad y la paradoja del votante," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 9(16), pages 149-188, January-J.
    2. Costel Andonie & Daniel Diermeier, 2022. "Electoral Institutions with impressionable voters," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 59(3), pages 683-733, October.
    3. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2017. "Conditional Retrospective Voting in Large Elections," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 54-75, May.

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