IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mos/moswps/2021-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exogenous Shocks and Electoral Outcomes: Re-examining the Rational Voter Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Kaustav Das

    (University of Leicester)

  • Atisha Ghosh

    (University of Warwick)

  • Pushkar Maitra

    (Monash University)

Abstract

Voters are assumed to be irrational if they respond to shocks beyond the control of politicians. What if the politicians can respond to such shocks? Using a theoretical model, where shocks can either be responsive (allowing politicians to respond) or nonresponsive, we show that voters are irrational if non-responsive shocks affect electoral outcomes. We test this using data from the 1991 Indian parliamentary elections. In the middle of the election, the leader of the opposition was assassinated. We find that this affected the electoral outcomes indicating irrationality on the part of Indian voters.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaustav Das & Atisha Ghosh & Pushkar Maitra, 2021. "Exogenous Shocks and Electoral Outcomes: Re-examining the Rational Voter Hypothesis," Monash Economics Working Papers 2021-13, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2021-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://monash-econ-wps.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/RePEc/mos/moswps/2021-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Masiero, Giuliano & Santarossa, Michael, 2021. "Natural disasters and electoral outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Baccini, Leonardo & Brodeur, Abel & Nossek, Sean & Shor, Eran, 2021. "Terrorism and Voting Behavior: Evidence from the United States," GLO Discussion Paper Series 755, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Keith E. Lee & Sydny L. Bryan & James T. LaPlant, 2017. "Game Day Meets Election Day: Sports Records, Election Results, and the American South," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1422-1434, November.
    4. Healy, Andrew & Malhotra, Neil, 2009. "Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 387-406, August.
    5. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    6. Ebeid, Michael & Rodden, Jonathan, 2006. "Economic Geography and Economic Voting: Evidence from the US States," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 527-547, July.
    7. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2002. "The Political Economy of Government Responsiveness: Theory and Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1415-1451.
    8. José G. Montalvo, 2011. "Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1146-1154, November.
    9. Abel Brodeur, 2018. "The Effect of Terrorism on Employment and Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 246-282, October.
    10. Cole, Shawn & Healy, Andrew & Werker, Eric, 2012. "Do voters demand responsive governments? Evidence from Indian disaster relief," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 167-181.
    11. Andrew Leigh, 2009. "Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 163-181, April.
    12. Khalil, Umair & Mookerjee, Sulagna & Tierney, Ryan, 2019. "Social interactions in voting behavior: Evidence from india," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 158-171.
    13. Hasin Yousaf, 2021. "Sticking to One’s Guns: Mass Shootings and the Political Economy of Gun Control in the United States," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2765-2802.
    14. Jowei Chen, 2013. "Voter Partisanship and the Effect of Distributive Spending on Political Participation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 200-217, January.
    15. Healy, Andrew J. & Malhotra, Neil & Mo, Cecilia H., 2009. "Personal Emotions and Political Decision Making: Implications for Voter Competence," Research Papers 2034, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    16. Barnett,William A. & Schofield,Norman & Hinich,Melvin (ed.), 1993. "Political Economy: Institutions, Competition and Representation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521428316, January.
    17. Wolfers, Justin, 2002. "Are Voters Rational? Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections," Research Papers 1730, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    18. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2016. "Voter reaction to government incompetence and corruption related to the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(2), pages 309-335, May.
    19. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    20. Scott Ashworth & Ethan Bueno de Mesquita & Amanda Friedenberg, 2018. "Learning about Voter Rationality," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(1), pages 37-54, January.
    21. Amarasinghe, Ashani, 2023. "Public sentiment in times of terror," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    22. John T. Gasper & Andrew Reeves, 2011. "Make It Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 340-355, April.
    23. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864.
    24. Jorge Gallego, 2015. "Natural Disasters and Clientelism: the Case of Floods and Landslides in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 12537, Universidad del Rosario.
    25. Barnett,William A. & Schofield,Norman & Hinich,Melvin (ed.), 1993. "Political Economy: Institutions, Competition and Representation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521417815, January.
    26. Kayser, Mark Andreas & Peress, Michael, 2012. "Benchmarking across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparison," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 661-684, August.
    27. Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Election or Disaster Support?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 205-220, January.
    28. Michael K. Miller, 2013. "For the Win! The Effect of Professional Sports Records on Mayoral Elections," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 94(1), pages 59-78, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dodlova, Marina & Zudenkova, Galina, 2021. "Incumbents’ performance and political extremism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    2. Amarasinghe, Ashani, 2023. "Public sentiment in times of terror," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    3. Roberto Ramos & Carlos Sanz, 2018. "Backing the incumbent in difficult times: the electoral impact of wildfires," Working Papers 1810, Banco de España.
    4. Carla Morvan & Sonia Paty, 2024. "Natural disasters and voter gratitude: What is the role of prevention policies?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(3), pages 427-465, March.
    5. Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Election or Disaster Support?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 205-220, January.
    6. Brian Blankenship & Johannes Urpelainen, 2020. "Electric Shock: The 2012 India Blackout and Public Confidence in Politicians," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 37(4), pages 464-490, July.
    7. Marina Dodlova & Galina Zudenkova, 2016. "Incumbents' Performance and Political Polarization," CESifo Working Paper Series 5728, CESifo.
    8. Rabah Arezki & Simeon Djankov & Ha Nguyen & Ivan Yotzov, 2022. "The Political Costs of Oil Price Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9763, CESifo.
    9. André Schultz & Alexander Libman, 2015. "Is there a local knowledge advantage in federations? Evidence from a natural experiment," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 25-42, January.
    10. Andrew Leigh, 2009. "Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 163-181, April.
    11. Raymond P. Guiteras & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2015. "Does Development Aid Undermine Political Accountability? Leader and Constituent Responses to a Large-Scale Intervention," NBER Working Papers 21434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Michael M. Bechtel & Jens Hainmueller, 2011. "How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short‐ and Long‐Term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 852-868, October.
    13. Stephan Schneider & Sven Kunze, 2021. "Disastrous Discretion: Ambiguous Decision Situations Foster Political Favoritism," KOF Working papers 21-491, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    14. Haruo Kondoh & Takeshi Miyazaki, 2024. "Do natural disasters affect local elections? An empirical examination using subnational electoral data," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 868-900, July.
    15. Masiero, Giuliano & Santarossa, Michael, 2021. "Natural disasters and electoral outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Klomp, Jeroen, 2019. "Does government ideology shake or shape the public finances? Empirical evidence of disaster assistance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 118-127.
    17. Kikuta,Kyosuke & Ono, Yoshikuni, 2024. "Global Evidence for the Relevance of Irrelevant Events: International Soccer Games and Leader Approval," IDE Discussion Papers 942, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    18. Sara M. Constantino & Alicia D. Cooperman & Thiago M. Q. Moreira, 2021. "Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2210-2235, September.
    19. Arroyo Abad, Leticia & Maurer, Noel, 2021. "Do Pandemics Shape Elections? Retrospective voting in the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 15678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2002. "Political economics and public finance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1549-1659, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Voter rationality; Responsive shock; Non-Responsive Shock; Election Outcomes.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2021-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Simon Angus (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dxmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.