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Investigating Allegations of Pointshaving in NCAA Basketball Using Actual Sportsbook Betting Percentages

Author

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  • Rodney J. Paul

    (St. Bonaventure University, Saint Bonaventure, NY, USA, rpaul@sbu.edu)

  • Andrew P. Weinbach

    (Coastal Carolina University, Conway, SC, USA)

Abstract

Detailed gambling market data are used to investigate allegations of pointshaving in college basketball by Wolfers. Data on actual sportsbook betting percentages on favorites and underdogs and changes in pointspreads are used to test for evidence of corruption by players and/or coaches of NCAA basketball teams. After establishing a rejection of the balanced book hypothesis, the authors test for corruption in a variety of ways by investigating the games that Wolfers describes as likely situations for pointshaving, specifically games involving big underdogs. In a variety of tests, which include differences in betting percentages on big underdogs who cover and do not cover the pointspread, betting simulations based on thresholds of percentage bet on underdogs, analysis of pointspread movements toward big underdogs, and an analysis of coaches and programs that meet the conditions of Wolfers, little evidence is found to suggest rampant pointshaving in this market.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2011. "Investigating Allegations of Pointshaving in NCAA Basketball Using Actual Sportsbook Betting Percentages," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(4), pages 432-447, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:432-447
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002510385904
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2012. "Response to Comment on “Investigating Allegations of Pointshaving in NCAA Basketball Using Actual Sportsbook Betting Percentagesâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(2), pages 211-217, April.
    2. Justin Cox & Adam Schwartz & Robert Ness, 2020. "Does what happen in Vegas stay in Vegas? Football gambling and stock market activity," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 724-748, October.
    3. Borghesi, Richard & Paul, Rodney & Weinbach, Andrew, 2024. "Point shaving? A novel experiment and new insights," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    4. Wladimir Andreff, 2016. "4 Corruption in Sport," Post-Print halshs-01279785, HAL.
    5. Berkowitz, Jason P. & Depken II, Craig A. & Gandar, John M., 2018. "Market evidence against widespread point shaving in college basketball," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 283-292.
    6. Christian Deutscher & Eugen Dimant & Brad R. Humphreys, 2017. "Match Fixing and Sports Betting in Football: Empirical Evidence from the German Bundesliga," Working Papers 17-01, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    7. Rodney J. Paul & Mark Wilson, 2015. "Political Correctness, Selection Bias, and the NCAA Basketball Tournament," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(2), pages 201-213, February.
    8. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2014. "Market Efficiency and Behavioral Biases in the WNBA Betting Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-10, April.
    9. Justin A. Ehrlich & Shankar Ghimire & Thomas R. Sadler & Shane D. Sanders, 2023. "Policy and Policy Response on the Court: A Theoretical and Empirical Examination of the Three-Point Line Extension in Basketball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(2), pages 159-173, February.
    10. Sutherland, Ewan, 2014. "Internet governance: Gambling on the periphery," 25th European Regional ITS Conference, Brussels 2014 101420, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    11. Wladimir Andreff, 2016. "4 Corruption in Sport," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01279785, HAL.

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