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Broadcasting Out-Group Repression to the In-Group: Evidence From China

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  • Erin Baggott Carter
  • Brett L. Carter

Abstract

Many autocrats govern with an in-group, whose support must be secured, and an out-group, which is subject to repression. How do autocrats exploit in-group/out-group dynamics to secure their survival? One strategy, we argue, is to broadcast out-group repression to the in-group as a signal of the regime’s capacity for violence. Empirically, we focus on China, where the government represses ethnic Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Drawing on 1 million articles from six propaganda newspapers, we show that the regime broadcasts out-group repression to urban elites on each anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, when 10% of Beijing residents joined anti-regime protests. To understand its effects, we conducted a survey experiment balanced on the national census during the June 2020 Tiananmen anniversary. Using a list experiment to mitigate preference falsification, we show that CCP propaganda about Uyghurs during the Tiananmen anniversary discourages protests among politically engaged urban elites because they fear repression.

Suggested Citation

  • Erin Baggott Carter & Brett L. Carter, 2024. "Broadcasting Out-Group Repression to the In-Group: Evidence From China," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 68(6), pages 1080-1108, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:68:y:2024:i:6:p:1080-1108
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027231185148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. King, Gary & Pan, Jennifer & Roberts, Margaret E., 2013. "How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 326-343, May.
    2. Baker, Andy, 2015. "Race, Paternalism, and Foreign Aid: Evidence from U.S. Public Opinion," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 93-109, February.
    3. Wallace, Jeremy, 2014. "Cities and Stability: Urbanization, Redistribution, and Regime Survival in China," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199378999, Decembrie.
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