IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v47y2003i3p340-366.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Announcement, Credibility, and Turnout in Popular Rebellions

Author

Listed:
  • Ravi Bhavnani

    (Department of Political Science University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Michael Ross

    (Department of Political Science University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

The dynamics of popular rebellions against authoritarian governments are examined by focusing on how the public's beliefs about the durability of an authoritarian government may have a self-fulfilling quality. This self-fulfilling quality gives both government and opposition leaders an incentive to make exaggerated “announcements†about the likelihood of a rebellion in the near future. Yet if their predictions are too far off, they will lose credibility, and their future announcements will carry less weight. The case of Indonesia, where the government's loss of credibility and the opposition's ability to exploit this weakness led to a popular uprising in 1998, is examined. A computational model consisting of a government, an opposition, and a population of citizens with heterogeneous preferences is developed to explore how announcements by the opposition and the government can influence the likelihood of rebellion. Results suggest that when the government's credibility is high, the opposition can do little to inspire rebellions; however, a small loss of credibility, if capitalized on by the opposition, markedly boosts the chances of a rebellion. When the public's underlying preferences are polarized, the likelihood of a rebellion drops sharply.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Bhavnani & Michael Ross, 2003. "Announcement, Credibility, and Turnout in Popular Rebellions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(3), pages 340-366, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:47:y:2003:i:3:p:340-366
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002703252368
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002703252368
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002703252368?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote & José A. Scheinkman, 1996. "Crime and Social Interactions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 507-548.
    2. ROBERT H. BATES & RUI J. P. De FIGUEIREDO Jr. & BARRY R. WEINGAST, 1998. "The Politics of Interpretation: Rationality, Culture, and Transition," Politics & Society, , vol. 26(2), pages 221-256, June.
    3. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
    4. Anthony R. Oberschall, 1994. "Rational Choice in Collective Protests," Rationality and Society, , vol. 6(1), pages 79-100, January.
    5. Wood,Elisabeth Jean, 2000. "Forging Democracy from Below," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521783231, January.
    6. Timur Kuran, 1989. "Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 41-74, April.
    7. Finkel, Steven E. & Muller, Edward N., 1998. "Rational Choice and the Dynamics of Collective Political Action: Evaluating Alternative Models with Panel Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(1), pages 37-49, March.
    8. Muller, Edward N. & Dietz, Henry A. & Finkel, Steven E., 1991. "Discontent and the Expected Utility of Rebellion: The Case of Peru," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1261-1282, December.
    9. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-170, Summer.
    10. Muller, Edward N. & Seligson, Mitchell A., 1987. "Inequality and Insurgency," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(2), pages 425-451, June.
    11. Wood,Elisabeth Jean, 2000. "Forging Democracy from Below," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788878, January.
    12. Colomer, Josep M., 1991. "Transitions by Agreement: Modeling the Spanish Way," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1283-1302, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erica Chenoweth & Jay Ulfelder, 2017. "Can Structural Conditions Explain the Onset of Nonviolent Uprisings?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(2), pages 298-324, February.
    2. Marino, Maria & Donni, Paolo Li & Bavetta, Sebastiano & Cellini, Marco, 2020. "The democratization process: An empirical appraisal of the role of political protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Juan A. Correa & Raúl Morales & Francisco Parro, 2018. "The Effects of Protests on Agents’ Expectations: Evidence from Students’ Demonstrations in Chile," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 56(3), pages 221-235, September.
    4. Peter J. Phillips & Gabriela Pohl, 2021. "Crowd counting: a behavioural economics perspective," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(6), pages 2253-2270, December.
    5. Fishman, Arthur & Fishman, Ram & Gneezy, Uri, 2019. "A tale of two food stands: Observational learning in the field," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 101-108.
    6. Joshua M. Epstein, 2007. "Agent-Based Computational Models and Generative Social Science," Introductory Chapters, in: Generative Social Science Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling, Princeton University Press.
    7. Pierre Courtois & Rabia Nessah & Tarik Tazdaït, 2024. "Revolutions and rational choice: A critical discussion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(3), pages 497-529, September.
    8. Feri, Francesco & Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A. & Ponti, Giovanni & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2011. "Error cascades in observational learning: An experiment on the Chinos game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 136-146, September.
    9. Bardsley, Nicholas & Sausgruber, Rupert, 2005. "Conformity and reciprocity in public good provision," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 664-681, October.
    10. Dong, Bin & Dulleck, Uwe & Torgler, Benno, 2012. "Conditional corruption," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 609-627.
    11. Bell, Ann Maria, 2002. "Locally interdependent preferences in a general equilibrium environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 309-333, March.
    12. Jennifer Raymond Dresden, 2017. "From combatants to candidates: Electoral competition and the legacy of armed conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(3), pages 240-263, May.
    13. Ucar, Erdem & Staer, Arsenio, 2020. "Local corruption and corporate social responsibility," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 266-282.
    14. Gregorio Caetano & Vikram Maheshri, 2013. "Do 'Broken Windows' Matter? Identifying Dynamic Spillovers in Criminal Behavior," Working Papers 2013-252-22, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    15. Mark Peceny & William D. Stanley, 2010. "Counterinsurgency in El Salvador," Politics & Society, , vol. 38(1), pages 67-94, March.
    16. Samuel Bowles, 2010. "The Coevolution of Institutions and Preferences: History and Theory," Chapters, in: Neri Salvadori (ed.), Institutional and Social Dynamics of Growth and Distribution, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Deconinck, Koen & Swinnen, Johan, 2015. "Peer effects and the rise of beer in Russia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 83-96.
    18. Michael Albertus & Victor Gay, 2017. "Unlikely Democrats: Economic Elite Uncertainty under Dictatorship and Support for Democratization," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(3), pages 624-641, July.
    19. repec:dgr:rugccs:200314 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jonathan P. Caulkins & Gustav Feichtinger & Dieter Grass & Richard F. Hartl & Peter M. Kort & Andreas J. Novak & Andrea Seidl & Franz Wirl, 2014. "A Dynamic Analysis of Schelling’s Binary Corruption Model: A Competitive Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 608-625, May.
    21. Celen, Bogachan & Hyndman, Kyle, 2006. "Endogenous Network Formation In the Laboratory," MPRA Paper 1440, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:47:y:2003:i:3:p:340-366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.