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Transitions by Agreement: Modeling the Spanish Way

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  • Colomer, Josep M.

Abstract

Several nonrevolutionary cases of transition to democracy are modeled. Different preferences and strategic choices between the alternatives of continuity, reform, and rupture of the authoritarian regime are used to define conventional distinctions between hard-liners, soft-liners, and opposition more precisely. Six groups of actors emerge. Using game theory, the interactions among these actors are formally analyzed. The possibility of political pact in the first phase of change is identified with the possibility of cooperation between players in games in which the equilibrium is a deficient outcome. Three models of transition by agreement are established: agreed reform within the ruling bloc, controlled opening to the opposition, and sudden collapse of the authoritarian regime. Each of these models entails differences in the pace of change and in the limits of the pact and can be associated with different cases of transition in Southern Europe, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Colomer, Josep M., 1991. "Transitions by Agreement: Modeling the Spanish Way," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1283-1302, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:85:y:1991:i:04:p:1283-1302_18
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Puy Fraga, 2012. "Learning how the world works in order to make it work ‘better’," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 333-337, September.
    2. Daniel Sutter, 2000. "The Transition from Authoritarian Rule," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 12(1), pages 67-89, January.
    3. Ravi Bhavnani & Michael Ross, 2003. "Announcement, Credibility, and Turnout in Popular Rebellions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(3), pages 340-366, June.
    4. Mark J. C. Crescenzi, 1999. "Violence and Uncertainty in Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(2), pages 192-212, April.
    5. Steven Cassou & Emanuel Xavier de Oliveira, 2011. "Barriers to technological adoption in Spain and Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(3), pages 189-209, December.
    6. Jakub Zielinski, 1999. "Transitions from Authoritarian Rule and the Problem of Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(2), pages 213-228, April.
    7. Daniel Sutter, 1995. "Settling Old Scores," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(1), pages 110-128, March.
    8. Schlumberger, Oliver, 2021. "Puzzles of political change in the Middle East: Political liberalisation, authoritarian resilience and the question of systemic change," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

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