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The End of the Cold War

Author

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  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

    (Hoover Institution, Stanford University)

Abstract

Gaddis claimed that international relations theory failed to predict the Gulf War, the Soviet Union's collapse, and the cold war's end. Subsequently, he acknowledged that the expected utility model captures the logic behind complex adaptive systems such as the cold war international system. That model correctly predicted two of the events to which Gaddis pointed. Here, that model is used to simulate alternative scenarios to determine whether the cold war's end could have been predicted based only on information available in 1948. The simulations show a 68% to 78% probability that the United States would win the cold war peacefully given the conditions in 1948 and plausible shifts in the attentiveness of each state to security concerns over time. The analysis demonstrates a rigorous method for testing counterfactual histories and shows that the pro-American end to the cold war was an emergent property of the initial post-World War II conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1998. "The End of the Cold War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(2), pages 131-155, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:42:y:1998:i:2:p:131-155
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002798042002001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Russett, Bruce, 1985. "The mysterious case of vanishing hegemony; or, Is Mark Twain really dead?," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 207-231, April.
    2. Ray, James Lee & Russett, Bruce, 1996. "The Future as Arbiter of Theoretical Controversies: Predictions, Explanations and the End of the Cold War," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-470, October.
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