IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/pepspp/v23y2017i4p4n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ornithology and Varieties of Conflict: A Personal Retrospective on Conflict Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Gleditsch Kristian Skrede

    (University of Essex, Department of Government, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)

Abstract

This note provides a retrospective on lessons learned in research on conflict forecasting, motivated by reflections around the retirement of Professor Michael D. Ward from Duke University. I argue that an excessive focus on “black swans” or surprising events that are hard to forecast detracts from considering the more frequent “white swans” or regularities in conflict. It is often more useful to focus on modal conflicts than exceptions, and substantial progress has been made in recent research. I identify some key lessons learned and highlight the need for researchers to distinguish between features that are more or less difficult to forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Gleditsch Kristian Skrede, 2017. "Ornithology and Varieties of Conflict: A Personal Retrospective on Conflict Forecasting," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 1-4, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:23:y:2017:i:4:p:4:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2017-0023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2017-0023
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/peps-2017-0023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ray, James Lee & Russett, Bruce, 1996. "The Future as Arbiter of Theoretical Controversies: Predictions, Explanations and the End of the Cold War," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-470, October.
    2. Timur Kuran, 1989. "Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 41-74, April.
    3. Cirillo, Pasquale & Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 2016. "On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 452(C), pages 29-45.
    4. Beck, Nathaniel & King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2000. "Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(1), pages 21-35, March.
    5. Ward, Michael D. & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2002. "Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 244-260, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nils B. Weidmann & Michael D. Ward, 2010. "Predicting Conflict in Space and Time," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(6), pages 883-901, December.
    2. Steven C. Poe & Nicolas Rost & Sabine C. Carey, 2006. "Assessing Risk and Opportunity in Conflict Studies," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(4), pages 484-507, August.
    3. Gerald Schneider & Nils Petter Gleditsch & Sabine Carey, 2011. "Forecasting in International Relations," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 5-14, February.
    4. Clayton L. Thyne, 2006. "Cheap Signals with Costly Consequences," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 937-961, December.
    5. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2020. "Economic downturns, inequality, and democratic improvements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Joshua M. Epstein, 2007. "Agent-Based Computational Models and Generative Social Science," Introductory Chapters, in: Generative Social Science Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling, Princeton University Press.
    7. Dagaev, Dmitry & Lamberova, Natalia & Sobolev, Anton, 2019. "Stability of revolutionary governments in the face of mass protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Scott Gates, 2002. "Recruitment and Allegiance," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 111-130, February.
    9. Silve, Arthur & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 434-447.
    10. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Kler, Parvinder, 2016. "The geographical spillover of armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 109-119.
    11. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    12. Erin Baggott Carter & Brett L. Carter, 2021. "Propaganda and Protest in Autocracies," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(5), pages 919-949, May.
    13. William D. Berry & Jacqueline H. R. DeMeritt & Justin Esarey, 2010. "Testing for Interaction in Binary Logit and Probit Models: Is a Product Term Essential?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 248-266, January.
    14. Alessandro Moro, 2016. "Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
    15. Mayntz, Renate, 2005. "Forschungsmethoden und Erkenntnispotential Natur- und Sozialwissenschaften im Vergleich," MPIfG Discussion Paper 05/7, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    16. Michael Mitsopoulos & Theodore Pelagidis, 2007. "Rent-Seeking and Ex Post Acceptance of Reforms in Higher Education," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 177-192.
    17. Li Han & Tao Li, 2021. "Marketing Communist Party membership in China," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 241-268, July.
    18. Sangnier, Marc & Zylberberg, Yanos, 2017. "Protests and trust in the state: Evidence from African countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 55-67.
    19. El-Mallakh, Nelly & Maurel, Mathilde & Speciale, Biagio, 2018. "Arab spring protests and women's labor market outcomes: Evidence from the Egyptian revolution," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 656-682.
    20. Bell, Ann Maria, 2002. "Locally interdependent preferences in a general equilibrium environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 309-333, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:23:y:2017:i:4:p:4:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.