A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices
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DOI: 10.1177/0738894210388127
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References listed on IDEAS
- Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1997. "A decision making model: Its structure and form," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3-4), pages 235-266, May.
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- Ray, James Lee & Russett, Bruce, 1996. "The Future as Arbiter of Theoretical Controversies: Predictions, Explanations and the End of the Cold War," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-470, October.
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Cited by:
- Çiflikli, Gökhan & Metternich, Nils W, 2019. "We predict conflict better than we thought! Taking time seriously when evaluating predictions in Binary-Time-Series-Cross-Section-Data," SocArXiv tvshu, Center for Open Science.
- Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R. & Schrodt, Philip A., 2014. "Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 944-962.
- Zambrano Andrés & Zuleta Hernando, 2017. "Goal and Strategies of an Insurgent Group: Violent and Non-violent Actions," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-7, April.
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Keywords
Bayesian updating; forecasting; game theory; prediction; policy engineering; policy analysis;All these keywords.
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