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Decision-Making Models, Rigor and New Puzzles

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  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Abstract

Comparative tests of predictive accuracy across models are exceptionally rare in political science. The collection of articles in this issue provides a rigorous, systematic evaluation of alternative models for explaining and predicting decision-making within the European Union. I examine how alternative models were evaluated and raise questions about the differences in the extent to which the operational definitions of variables match contending theoretical approaches. I also raise questions regarding the difference between models with regard to whether the issues are part of a repeated game or a single-shot game. Finally, I propose future tests to hone in on some of the puzzles raised by the findings reported here.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 2004. "Decision-Making Models, Rigor and New Puzzles," European Union Politics, , vol. 5(1), pages 125-138, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:5:y:2004:i:1:p:125-138
    DOI: 10.1177/1465116504040448
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ray, James Lee & Russett, Bruce, 1996. "The Future as Arbiter of Theoretical Controversies: Predictions, Explanations and the End of the Cold War," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-470, October.
    2. Maurice Rojer, 1999. "Collective Decision-Making Models Applied To Labor Negotiations In The Netherlands: A Comparison Between An Exchange Model And A Conflict Model," Rationality and Society, , vol. 11(2), pages 207-235, May.
    3. McKelvey, Richard D, 1979. "General Conditions for Global Intransitivities in Formal Voting Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1085-1112, September.
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    1. Mónica D. Oliveira & Inês Mataloto & Panos Kanavos, 2019. "Multi-criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment: addressing methodological challenges to improve the state of the art," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(6), pages 891-918, August.

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