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Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations

Author

Listed:
  • Detlef F. Sprinz

    (PIK–Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, and Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, Germany)

  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

    (Department of Politics, New York University, USA)

  • Steffen Kallbekken

    (CICERO–Center for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo, Norway)

  • Frans Stokman

    (Department of Sociology, University of Groningen, The Netherlands)

  • Håkon Sælen

    (CICERO–Center for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo, Norway, and Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Norway)

  • Robert Thomson

    (School of Government and Public Policy, University of Strathclyde, UK)

Abstract

We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Detlef F. Sprinz & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Steffen Kallbekken & Frans Stokman & Håkon Sælen & Robert Thomson, 2016. "Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 172-187.
    • Handle: RePEc:cog:poango:v4:y:2016:i:3:p:172-187
    DOI: 10.17645/pag.v4i3.654
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