IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cog/poango/v4y2016i3p172-187.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations

Author

Listed:
  • Detlef F. Sprinz

    (PIK–Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, and Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, Germany)

  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

    (Department of Politics, New York University, USA)

  • Steffen Kallbekken

    (CICERO–Center for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo, Norway)

  • Frans Stokman

    (Department of Sociology, University of Groningen, The Netherlands)

  • Håkon Sælen

    (CICERO–Center for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo, Norway, and Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Norway)

  • Robert Thomson

    (School of Government and Public Policy, University of Strathclyde, UK)

Abstract

We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Detlef F. Sprinz & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Steffen Kallbekken & Frans Stokman & Håkon Sælen & Robert Thomson, 2016. "Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 172-187.
    • Handle: RePEc:cog:poango:v4:y:2016:i:3:p:172-187
    DOI: 10.17645/pag.v4i3.654
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/654
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17645/pag.v4i3.654?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heike Schroeder & Heather Lovell, 2012. "The role of non-nation-state actors and side events in the international climate negotiations," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 23-37, January.
    2. Katharina Michaelowa & Axel Michaelowa, 2012. "Negotiating climate change," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 527-533, September.
    3. Ray, James Lee & Russett, Bruce, 1996. "The Future as Arbiter of Theoretical Controversies: Predictions, Explanations and the End of the Cold War," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-470, October.
    4. Radoslav S. Dimitrov, 2010. "Inside Copenhagen: The State of Climate Governance," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 10(2), pages 18-24, May.
    5. Marcel van Assen & Frans Stokman & Reinier van Oosten, 2003. "Conflict Measures in Cooperative Exchange Models of Collective Decision-making," Rationality and Society, , vol. 15(1), pages 85-112, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jon Hovi & Tora Skodvin, 2016. "Editorial to the Issue on Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 111-114.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Detlef F. Sprinz & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Steffen Kallbekken & Frans Stokman & Håkon Sælen & Robert Thomson, 2016. "Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 172-187.
    2. Zhang, Ruirui & Wang, Guiling & Shen, Xiaoxu & Wang, Jinfeng & Tan, Xianfeng & Feng, Shoutao & Hong, Jinglan, 2020. "Is geothermal heating environmentally superior than coal fired heating in China?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Katharina Rietig & Christine Peringer & Sarina Theys & Jecel Censoro, 2023. "Unanimity or standing aside? Reinterpreting consensus in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 221-234, September.
    4. Galaz, Victor & Crona, Beatrice & Österblom, Henrik & Olsson, Per & Folke, Carl, 2012. "Polycentric systems and interacting planetary boundaries — Emerging governance of climate change–ocean acidification–marine biodiversity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 21-32.
    5. Nasiritousi, Naghmeh & Hjerpe, Mattias & Buhr, Katarina, 2014. "Pluralising climate change solutions? Views held and voiced by participants at the international climate change negotiations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 177-184.
    6. Radoslav S. Dimitrov, 2010. "Inside UN Climate Change Negotiations: The Copenhagen Conference," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 27(6), pages 795-821, November.
    7. Charles F. Parker & Christer Karlsson, 2017. "The European Union as a global climate leader: confronting aspiration with evidence," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 445-461, August.
    8. Ingolfur Blühdorn & Michael Deflorian, 2019. "The Collaborative Management of Sustained Unsustainability: On the Performance of Participatory Forms of Environmental Governance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, February.
    9. Jacob Dijkstra & Marcel A. L. M. van Assen, 2008. "The Comparison of Four Types of Everyday Interdependencies," Rationality and Society, , vol. 20(1), pages 115-143, February.
    10. Liu, Junrong & Deng, Guoying & Yan, Jingzhou & Ma, Shibo, 2023. "Unraveling the impact of climate policy uncertainty on corporate default risk: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    11. Siwon Park, 2016. "The power of presidency in UN climate change negotiations: comparison between Denmark and Mexico," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 781-795, December.
    12. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1998. "The End of the Cold War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(2), pages 131-155, April.
    13. Fan, Kecai & Zheng, Mao & Shen, Yanan & Zhang, Fangfang, 2023. "Nexus between economic recovery, energy consumption, CO2 emission, and total natural resources rent," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    14. Issaka Sule Ayannor, 2021. "Setbacks to the Implementation of the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions: Case Studies of the Namas of Ethiopia, Georgia and Indonesia," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 40(3), pages 33-44, September.
    15. Jan Beyers & Marcel Hanegraaff, 2017. "Balancing friends and foes: Explaining advocacy styles at global diplomatic conferences," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 461-484, September.
    16. Piero Morseletto & Frank Biermann & Philipp Pattberg, 2017. "Governing by targets: reductio ad unum and evolution of the two-degree climate target," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 655-676, October.
    17. Harriet Thew, 2018. "Youth participation and agency in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 369-389, June.
    18. Fugang Wang & Jing Jing & Tianfu Xu & Yanlin Yang & Guangrong Jin, 2016. "Impacts of stratum dip angle on CO 2 geological storage amount and security," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(5), pages 682-694, October.
    19. Marlene Kammerer & Chandreyee Namhata, 2018. "What drives the adoption of climate change mitigation policy? A dynamic network approach to policy diffusion," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 51(4), pages 477-513, December.
    20. Ina Tessnow-von Wysocki & Alice B. M. Vadrot, 2024. "Pathways of scientific input into intergovernmental negotiations: a new agreement on marine biodiversity," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 325-348, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cog:poango:v4:y:2016:i:3:p:172-187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: António Vieira or IT Department (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cogitatiopress.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.