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A Bayesian Analysis of a Class of Multistage Decision Problems

Author

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  • James M. Enelow

    (Department of Political Science, State University of New York at Stony Brook)

Abstract

This article uses a Bayesian rational approach to analyze a generic set of decision problems. A committee must decide which proposal to submit to a set of decision bodies, which decide separately whether to accept or reject the proposal. The article offers sufficient conditions for the proposing body to reach rational group decisions. The model is applied to decision making in response to an international crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • James M. Enelow, 1988. "A Bayesian Analysis of a Class of Multistage Decision Problems," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(4), pages 759-772, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:32:y:1988:i:4:p:759-772
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002788032004007
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aumann, Robert J, 1987. "Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 1-18, January.
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