IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v27y1983i4p661-686.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trends in American Major War and Peace

Author

Listed:
  • Francis A. Beer

    (Political Science Department, University of Colorado)

Abstract

This article attempts to describe possible historical trends in American major peace and war. With caution, because of the small number of data points, it notes that (a) periods of major peace have become more frequent and shorter; (b) major wars that break up the peace periods have necessarily become more frequent; (c) the length of major wars shows no clear overall trend, though there may be reason to believe that major wars have become more frequent and longer in our own time; and (d) major war casualties appear to have increased absolutely, though not relative to population. These results are compared with possible historical trends in the more general international system, as well as with patterns suggested by probabilistic theory. One explanation for the American experience of peace and war lies in the dynamics of U.S. growth. If one assumes that the apparent trends will continue, the findings finally allow us to extrapolate the scope and limits of future American peace and war.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis A. Beer, 1983. "Trends in American Major War and Peace," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(4), pages 661-686, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:27:y:1983:i:4:p:661-686
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002783027004006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002783027004006
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002783027004006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Doran, Charles F. & Parsons, Wes, 1980. "War and the Cycle of Relative Power," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 947-965, December.
    2. Herbert K. Weiss, 1963. "Stochastic Models for the Duration and Magnitude of a “Deadly Quarrel”," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 101-121, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Huth & D. Scott Bennett & Christopher Gelpi, 1992. "System Uncertainty, Risk Propensity, and International Conflict among the Great Powers," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(3), pages 478-517, September.
    2. Jonathan M. DiCicco & Jack S. Levy, 1999. "Power Shifts and Problem Shifts," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(6), pages 675-704, December.
    3. William Moul, 2003. "Power Parity, Preponderance, and War between Great Powers, 1816-1989," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(4), pages 468-489, August.
    4. Lewis House & Michael Ward, 1988. "The behavioral power of nations: an analysis of verbal conflict using the equations of statistical equilibrium," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 167-189, June.
    5. William R. Thompson & Karen A. Rasler, 1988. "War and Systemic Capability Reconcentration," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(2), pages 335-366, June.
    6. Gary Goertz & Paul F. Diehl, 1992. "Toward a Theory of International Norms," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(4), pages 634-664, December.
    7. Brock F. Tessman & Steve Chan, 2004. "Power Cycles, Risk Propensity, and Great-Power Deterrence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 131-153, April.
    8. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, 1991. "On the Likely Magnitude, Extent, and Duration of an Iraq-UN War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(3), pages 387-411, September.
    9. R. J. Rummel, 1967. "Dimensions of dyadic war, 1820–1952," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 11(2), pages 176-183, June.
    10. J. David Singer, 1970. "From A Study of War to peace research: some criteria and strategies," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 14(4), pages 527-542, December.
    11. Kelly M. Kadera, 1999. "The Power-Conflict Story: a Synopsis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 17(2), pages 149-174, September.
    12. Charles F. Doran, 1989. "Systemic Disequilibrium, Foreign Policy Role, and the Power Cycle," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 371-401, September.
    13. Michael D. Intriligator, 1982. "Research on Conflict Theory," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(2), pages 307-327, June.
    14. Edward D. Mansfield, 1992. "The Concentration of Capabilities and the Onset of War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(1), pages 3-24, March.
    15. Indra de Soysa & John R. Oneal & Yong-Hee Park, 1997. "Testing Power-Transition Theory Using Alternative Measures of National Capabilities," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(4), pages 509-528, August.
    16. Brian M. Pollins, 2008. "Globalization and Armed Conflict Among Nations," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(3), pages 191-205, July.
    17. Woosang Kim, 1989. "Power, Alliance, and Major Wars, 1816-1975," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(2), pages 255-273, June.
    18. Silverberg, Gerald, 2005. "When is a Wave a Wave? Long Waves as Empirical and Theoretical Constructs from a Complex Systems Perspective," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    19. William R. Thompson, 1986. "Polarity, the Long Cycle, and Global Power Warfare," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 587-615, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:27:y:1983:i:4:p:661-686. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.