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War and the Cycle of Relative Power

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  • Doran, Charles F.
  • Parsons, Wes

Abstract

Relative nation-state capability follows a generalized nonlinear pattern over long periods. Empirical evidence indicates that between 1816–1975 nine major powers have traversed at least a segment of this relative capability cycle of political ascendancy, maturation and decline. Specific changes in a state's relative capability dynamics increase its propensity to initiate extensive war. Whether the extensiveness of a war is defined in terms of duration, intensity or magnitude, major powers are likely to initiate more extensive wars at the critical inflection and turning points on the curve of relative capability where the linear role perceptions held by government and society change pervasively. This analysis involves a new theoretical focus for examining the causes of war, shifting attention from interactions between nations to the consequences of changes in relative power and to the political evolution of the nation-state itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Doran, Charles F. & Parsons, Wes, 1980. "War and the Cycle of Relative Power," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 947-965, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:74:y:1980:i:04:p:947-965_16
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan M. DiCicco & Jack S. Levy, 1999. "Power Shifts and Problem Shifts," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(6), pages 675-704, December.
    2. Indra de Soysa & John R. Oneal & Yong-Hee Park, 1997. "Testing Power-Transition Theory Using Alternative Measures of National Capabilities," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(4), pages 509-528, August.
    3. William Moul, 2003. "Power Parity, Preponderance, and War between Great Powers, 1816-1989," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(4), pages 468-489, August.
    4. Edward D. Mansfield, 1992. "The Concentration of Capabilities and the Onset of War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(1), pages 3-24, March.
    5. Francis A. Beer, 1983. "Trends in American Major War and Peace," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(4), pages 661-686, December.
    6. Michael D. Intriligator, 1982. "Research on Conflict Theory," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(2), pages 307-327, June.
    7. Paul Huth & D. Scott Bennett & Christopher Gelpi, 1992. "System Uncertainty, Risk Propensity, and International Conflict among the Great Powers," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(3), pages 478-517, September.
    8. Silverberg, Gerald, 2005. "When is a Wave a Wave? Long Waves as Empirical and Theoretical Constructs from a Complex Systems Perspective," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Brian M. Pollins, 2008. "Globalization and Armed Conflict Among Nations," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(3), pages 191-205, July.
    10. William R. Thompson & Karen A. Rasler, 1988. "War and Systemic Capability Reconcentration," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(2), pages 335-366, June.
    11. Woosang Kim, 1989. "Power, Alliance, and Major Wars, 1816-1975," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(2), pages 255-273, June.
    12. Kelly M. Kadera, 1999. "The Power-Conflict Story: a Synopsis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 17(2), pages 149-174, September.
    13. William R. Thompson, 1986. "Polarity, the Long Cycle, and Global Power Warfare," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 587-615, December.
    14. Charles F. Doran, 1989. "Systemic Disequilibrium, Foreign Policy Role, and the Power Cycle," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 371-401, September.
    15. Lewis House & Michael Ward, 1988. "The behavioral power of nations: an analysis of verbal conflict using the equations of statistical equilibrium," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 167-189, June.
    16. Brock F. Tessman & Steve Chan, 2004. "Power Cycles, Risk Propensity, and Great-Power Deterrence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 131-153, April.
    17. Gary Goertz & Paul F. Diehl, 1992. "Toward a Theory of International Norms," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(4), pages 634-664, December.

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