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The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the Bilateral Trade in the Region: Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model

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  • Özge Korkmaz
  • Semih Karacan

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the regional impact of the sanctions imposed by the West on the Russian Federation. To this end, we used two samples to estimate the determinants of bilateral trade. The first dataset belongs to ex-Soviet countries between 1992 and 2019, and the second dataset expands it with bilateral trade data relating to China, Iran and Turkey. The results reveal that there are structural differences between the two samples regarding the determinants of the bilateral trade flows and sanctions that have spillover effects in the region. We also projected our findings to the recent events. JEL Codes: C33, F13, F14

Suggested Citation

  • Özge Korkmaz & Semih Karacan, 2024. "The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the Bilateral Trade in the Region: Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(3), pages 412-428, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:59:y:2024:i:3:p:412-428
    DOI: 10.1177/00157325231191891
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2016. "Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 295-308.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia; Ukraine; war; gravity model of the trade; Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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