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Do China and Russia undermine Western sanctions? Evidence from DiD and event study estimation

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  • Jerg Gutmann
  • Matthias Neuenkirch
  • Florian Neumeier

Abstract

Motivated by the claim that China and Russia purposefully and systematically undermine Western sanction efforts, we study the effects of US and EU sanctions on trade flows between sanctioned and third countries during the period 2002–2019. We find no evidence of systematic sanction busting by Russia. For China, our results are more ambiguous. While we do not find robust evidence for an increase in overall trade between China and countries targeted by Western sanctions, trade in (raw) materials and critical goods increases notably.

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  • Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Do China and Russia undermine Western sanctions? Evidence from DiD and event study estimation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 132-160, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:32:y:2024:i:1:p:132-160
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12716
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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • K33 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - International Law

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