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Spatial Allocation of Future Residential Land Use in the Elbe River Basin

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  • Jana Hoymann

    (Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Technical University of Berlin, EB 4-2, Straße des 17. Juni 145, 10623 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

In this paper a scenario study of the residential land-use development in the Elbe River Basin is presented. The study uses an approach that empirically determines suitability maps for the application within a land-use-change model. Recent urbanisation processes are explained in the first step and are used in simulations of future land use in the second step. Binomial logistic regression analysis is applied in an analysis of the location characteristics influencing residential land-use change. Estimation results are adapted and used as weights in the calculation of suitability maps, which consist of the location characteristics of residential land-use change. Including policy maps in suitability calculations allows important spatial restrictions to be accounted for and enables the impact of spatial planning on the allocation of residential developments to be analysed. The suitability maps are further applied to the Land Use Scanner model to simulate spatially explicit residential land-use developments in the Elbe River Basin. Results of this study show that empirically determined suitability maps used in models of land-use change can contribute to the operational use of scenario studies in political discussion support. Considerable differences in applied policy maps in terms of their contribution to the sustainable development of residential and use are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jana Hoymann, 2010. "Spatial Allocation of Future Residential Land Use in the Elbe River Basin," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 37(5), pages 911-928, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:37:y:2010:i:5:p:911-928
    DOI: 10.1068/b36009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Ritsema van Eck & Eric Koomen, 2008. "Characterising urban concentration and land-use diversity in simulations of future land use," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 123-140, March.
    2. Maarten Hilferink & Piet Rietveld, 1999. "LAND USE SCANNER: An integrated GIS based model for long term projections of land use in urban and rural areas," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 155-177, July.
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    2. Eric Koomen & Vasco Diogo, 2017. "Assessing potential future urban heat island patterns following climate scenarios, socio-economic developments and spatial planning strategies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 287-306, February.

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