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Une évaluation de l'importance des anticipations boursières des experts

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  • Auguste Mpacko Priso

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[fre] Une évaluation de l'importance des anticipations boursières des experts . par Auguste Mpacko Priso . Quel rôle jouent les anticipations boursières des experts de l'économie et de la finance ? Les opérateurs en bourse peuvent-ils s'en servir comme repère ? Cet article tente d'apporter des éléments de réponse à ces questions en se basant sur les résultats de l'enquête Livingston. À travers une étude de causalité, nous montrons que les prévisions boursières (cours nominaux) des experts peuvent être utilisées pour améliorer les prévisions boursières des opérateurs ordinaires. Toutefois, les prévisions des experts ne sont pas suffisamment informatives pour permettre d'améliorer les prévisions de rentabilités et de primes de risque des actions. Or, c'est sur ces dernières variables que portent les choix d'actifs entrant dans la composition du portefeuille. Après une étude de la dynamique entre les anticipations boursières des experts et les cours observés, nous montrons que les anticipations des experts se forment selon un mécanisme à correction d'erreur. Nous montrons enfin que les cours évoluent comme s'ils se servaient des prévisions des experts comme cible. [eng] An Evaluation of the Importance of Expert Stock Price Expectations . by Auguste Mpacko Priso . What role do economic and financial experts' stock price expectations play? Can traders use these expectations as a benchmark? This paper sets out to provide some answers to these questions using the results of the Livingston survey. A causality study shows that expert nominal stock price expectations can be used to improve ordinary traders' price forecasts. However, expert forecasts do not provide enough information to improve stock yield and stock risk premium expectations, which are the variables used in portfoUo decisions. A study of the dynamics between expert stock price expectations and actual prices shows that expert expectations are formed on the basis of an error correction mechanism. Lastly, we show that stock prices change as if they were using expert expectations as a target.

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  • Auguste Mpacko Priso, 1998. "Une évaluation de l'importance des anticipations boursières des experts," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 136(5), pages 49-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1998_num_136_5_5937
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1998.5937
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1998.5937
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