IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/engenv/v27y2016i1p28-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A composite indicator for short-term diffusion forecasts of renewable energy technologies – the case of Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Inga Boie
  • Mario Ragwitz
  • Anne Held

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of energy policy and the regulatory environment on the deployment of technologies based on renewable energy sources in Germany and presents a model to forecast future renewable energy technology diffusion. Our concept is based on the development of a composite indicator for renewable energy diffusion with a focus on wind energy (onshore) and photovoltaic. The approach has three major components: in-depth, semi-structured interviews with renewable energy developers and energy sector stakeholders to identify the major drivers and barriers (determinants) for renewable energy diffusion in the case study country; an EU-wide, questionnaire-based survey to understand the relevance (weights) of the individual determinants; and an analysis of past renewable energy diffusion patterns resulting in the deduction of a model for short-term renewable energy technology diffusion forecasts. Results demonstrate the substantial impact of economic and non-economic framework conditions on the diffusion of photovoltaic and wind energy in Germany. Furthermore, the use of composite indicators for renewable energy technology diffusion analyses proves to be a promising approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Inga Boie & Mario Ragwitz & Anne Held, 2016. "A composite indicator for short-term diffusion forecasts of renewable energy technologies – the case of Germany," Energy & Environment, , vol. 27(1), pages 28-54, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:27:y:2016:i:1:p:28-54
    DOI: 10.1177/0958305X16638571
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0958305X16638571
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0958305X16638571?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Komendantova, Nadejda & Patt, Anthony & Barras, Lucile & Battaglini, Antonella, 2012. "Perception of risks in renewable energy projects: The case of concentrated solar power in North Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 103-109.
    2. Guy L. F. Holburn & Bennet A. Zelner, 2010. "Political capabilities, policy risk, and international investment strategy: evidence from the global electric power generation industry," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1290-1315, December.
    3. Eleftheriadis, Iordanis M. & Anagnostopoulou, Evgenia G., 2015. "Identifying barriers in the diffusion of renewable energy sources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 153-164.
    4. Pulkki-Brännström, Anni-Maria & Stoneman, Paul, 2013. "On the patterns and determinants of the global diffusion of new technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 1768-1779.
    5. Lund, Peter, 2006. "Market penetration rates of new energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3317-3326, November.
    6. Friebe, Christian A. & von Flotow, Paschen & Täube, Florian A., 2014. "Exploring technology diffusion in emerging markets – the role of public policy for wind energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 217-226.
    7. Patlitzianas, Konstantinos D. & Doukas, Haris & Kagiannas, Argyris G. & Psarras, John, 2008. "Sustainable energy policy indicators: Review and recommendations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 966-973.
    8. Rao, K. Usha & Kishore, V.V.N., 2010. "A review of technology diffusion models with special reference to renewable energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 1070-1078, April.
    9. McLaren Loring, Joyce, 2007. "Wind energy planning in England, Wales and Denmark: Factors influencing project success," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2648-2660, April.
    10. Grubler, Arnulf & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Victor, David G., 1999. "Dynamics of energy technologies and global change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 247-280, May.
    11. Alagappan, L. & Orans, R. & Woo, C.K., 2011. "What drives renewable energy development?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5099-5104, September.
    12. Holburn, Guy L.F., 2012. "Assessing and managing regulatory risk in renewable energy: Contrasts between Canada and the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 654-665.
    13. Iglesias, Guillermo & del Río, Pablo & Dopico, Jesús Ángel, 2011. "Policy analysis of authorisation procedures for wind energy deployment in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4067-4076, July.
    14. Resch, Gustav & Held, Anne & Faber, Thomas & Panzer, Christian & Toro, Felipe & Haas, Reinhard, 2008. "Potentials and prospects for renewable energies at global scale," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4048-4056, November.
    15. de Vries, Bert J.M. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique M., 2007. "Renewable energy sources: Their global potential for the first-half of the 21st century at a global level: An integrated approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2590-2610, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mikova, Nadezhda & Eichhammer, Wolfgang & Pfluger, Benjamin, 2019. "Low-carbon energy scenarios 2050 in north-west European countries: Towards a more harmonised approach to achieve the EU targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 448-460.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Polzin, Friedemann & Egli, Florian & Steffen, Bjarne & Schmidt, Tobias S., 2019. "How do policies mobilize private finance for renewable energy?—A systematic review with an investor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1249-1268.
    2. Polzin, Friedemann, 2017. "Mobilizing private finance for low-carbon innovation – A systematic review of barriers and solutions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 525-535.
    3. Mahtta, Richa & Joshi, P.K. & Jindal, Alok Kumar, 2014. "Solar power potential mapping in India using remote sensing inputs and environmental parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 255-262.
    4. Mostafaeipour, Ali, 2010. "Productivity and development issues of global wind turbine industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 1048-1058, April.
    5. Best, Rohan & Burke, Paul J., 2018. "Adoption of solar and wind energy: The roles of carbon pricing and aggregate policy support," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 404-417.
    6. Cheng, Yu & Huang, Lucheng & Ramlogan, Ronnie & Li, Xin, 2017. "Forecasting of potential impacts of disruptive technology in promising technological areas: Elaborating the SIRS epidemic model in RFID technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-183.
    7. Papapostolou, Aikaterini & Karakosta, Charikleia & Nikas, Alexandros & Psarras, John, 2017. "Exploring opportunities and risks for RES-E deployment under Cooperation Mechanisms between EU and Western Balkans: A multi-criteria assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 519-530.
    8. Martin, Nigel & Rice, John, 2015. "Improving Australia's renewable energy project policy and planning: A multiple stakeholder analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 128-141.
    9. Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu & Pratama, Yoga Wienda & Nugroho, Yulianto Sulistyo & Warjito, & Hertono, Gatot Fatwanto & Hartono, Djoni & Deendarlianto, & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2015. "Multi-objective optimization model for sustainable Indonesian electricity system: Analysis of economic, environment, and adequacy of energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 308-318.
    10. Scaramuzzino, Chiara & Garegnani, Giulia & Zambelli, Pietro, 2019. "Integrated approach for the identification of spatial patterns related to renewable energy potential in European territories," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.
    11. Arias-Gaviria, Jessica & Larsen, Erik R. & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago, 2018. "Understanding the future of Seawater Air Conditioning in the Caribbean: A simulation approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 73-83.
    12. Bastian Winkler & Iris Lewandowski & Angelika Voss & Stefanie Lemke, 2018. "Transition towards Renewable Energy Production? Potential in Smallholder Agricultural Systems in West Bengal, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, March.
    13. Mercure, Jean-François & Salas, Pablo, 2013. "On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 469-483.
    14. Xu, Jiuping & Li, Li & Zheng, Bobo, 2016. "Wind energy generation technological paradigm diffusion," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 436-449.
    15. Dodds, Paul E., 2014. "Integrating housing stock and energy system models as a strategy to improve heat decarbonisation assessments," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 358-369.
    16. Izadyar, Nima & Ong, Hwai Chyuan & Chong, W.T. & Leong, K.Y., 2016. "Resource assessment of the renewable energy potential for a remote area: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 908-923.
    17. Lancker, Kira & Quaas, Martin F., 2019. "Increasing marginal costs and the efficiency of differentiated feed-in tariffs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 104-118.
    18. Arias-Gaviria, Jessica & Carvajal-Quintero, Sandra Ximena & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago, 2019. "Understanding dynamics and policy for renewable energy diffusion in Colombia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1111-1119.
    19. Moriarty, Patrick & Honnery, Damon, 2011. "Is there an optimum level for renewable energy?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2748-2753, May.
    20. George A. Gonzalez, 2016. "Transforming Energy: Solving Climate Change with Technology Policy . New York : Cambridge University Press . 360 pages. ISBN 9781107614970, $29.99 paperback. Anthony Patt , 2015 ," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 33(1), pages 111-113, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:27:y:2016:i:1:p:28-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.