IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/engenv/v17y2006i5p685-706.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainties in Assessing Global Warming during the 20th Century: Disagreement between Key Data Sources

Author

Listed:
  • Maxim Ogurtsov

    (A. F. Ioffe Physico-Technical Institute, Laboratory of cosmic rays, 194021, Polytechnicheskaya 26, St. Petersburg, Russia)

  • Markus Lindholm

    (Finnish Forest Research Institute, P.O. Box 18, Jokiniemenkuja 1, 01301 Vantaa, Finland)

Abstract

We have reanalyzed the available data on the terrestrial temperature in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1000 years using both direct observations and various proxy records. It is shown that the only plausible conclusion, which can be drawn from these data is that global temperature has been increasing since the end of the 19th century. However, due to discrepancies between different large-scale temperature proxies, it is impossible to determine whether this warming is anomalous or a result of natural climatic cycles. Furthermore, the amplitude of the temperature rise cannot be estimated correctly because of considerable disagreement between thermometer records, proxy data and satellite measurements over the last 20–30 years. Thus, the origin of the rise of global temperature should be considered to be unknown due to a lack of adequate knowledge about any of the factors that may be responsible for this phenomenon (the greenhouse effect, the rise of solar activity, natural climatic variability, regional anthropogenic impact etc.). A few probable scenarios of climatic changes in the first part of the 21 st century are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxim Ogurtsov & Markus Lindholm, 2006. "Uncertainties in Assessing Global Warming during the 20th Century: Disagreement between Key Data Sources," Energy & Environment, , vol. 17(5), pages 685-706, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:17:y:2006:i:5:p:685-706
    DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.17.5.685
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1260/0958-305X.17.5.685
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1260/0958-305X.17.5.685?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugenia Kalnay & Ming Cai, 2003. "Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 423(6939), pages 528-531, May.
    2. Stephen McIntyre & Ross McKitrick, 2003. "Corrections to the Mann et. al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series," Energy & Environment, , vol. 14(6), pages 751-771, November.
    3. Seymour Laxon & Neil Peacock & Doug Smith, 2003. "High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region," Nature, Nature, vol. 425(6961), pages 947-950, October.
    4. Shaopeng Huang & Henry N. Pollack & Po-Yu Shen, 2000. "Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6771), pages 756-758, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaoqing Lin & Chunyan Lu & Kaishan Song & Ying Su & Yifan Lei & Lianxiu Zhong & Yibin Gao, 2020. "Analysis of Coupling Coordination Variance between Urbanization Quality and Eco-Environment Pressure: A Case Study of the West Taiwan Strait Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Terence C. Mills, 2004. "Time Series Modelling of Trends in Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(5), pages 743-753, September.
    3. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Anne A. Gharaibeh & Esra’a M. Al.Zu’bi & Lama B. Abuhassan, 2019. "Amman ( City of Waters ); Policy, Land Use, and Character Changes," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-25, December.
    6. Isaac Sarfo & Bi Shuoben & Li Beibei & Solomon Obiri Yeboah Amankwah & Emmanuel Yeboah & John Ernest Koku & Edward Kweku Nunoo & Clement Kwang, 2022. "Spatiotemporal development of land use systems, influences and climate variability in Southwestern Ghana (1970–2020)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 9851-9883, August.
    7. Susanne A. Benz & Kathrin Menberg & Peter Bayer & Barret L. Kurylyk, 2022. "Shallow subsurface heat recycling is a sustainable global space heating alternative," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. David Barber & Matthew Asplin & Richard Raddatz & Lauren Candlish & Scot Nickels & Stephanie Meakin & Klaus Hochheim & Jennifer Lukovich & Ryan Galley & Simon Prinsenberg, 2012. "Change and variability in sea ice during the 2007–2008 Canadian International Polar Year program," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(1), pages 115-133, November.
    9. Tian, Guangjin & Jiang, Jing & Yang, Zhifeng & Zhang, Yaoqi, 2011. "The urban growth, size distribution and spatio-temporal dynamic pattern of the Yangtze River Delta megalopolitan region, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 865-878.
    10. Camacho, Carmen & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín, 2015. "Land use dynamics and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 96-118.
    11. Yali Zhong & Shuqing Chen & Haihua Mo & Weiwen Wang & Pengfei Yu & Xuemei Wang & Nima Chuduo & Bian Ba, 2022. "Contribution of urban expansion to surface warming in high-altitude cities of the Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Lina Eklund & Abdulhakim Abdi & Mine Islar, 2017. "From Producers to Consumers: The Challenges and Opportunities of Agricultural Development in Iraqi Kurdistan," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-14, June.
    13. Xiaolong Jin & Penghui Jiang & Haoyang Du & Dengshuai Chen & Manchun Li, 2021. "Response of local temperature variation to land cover and land use intensity changes in China over the last 30 years," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-20, February.
    14. Myeong Ja Kwak & Jong Kyu Lee & Sanghee Park & Yea Ji Lim & Handong Kim & Kyeong Nam Kim & Sun Mi Je & Chan Ryul Park & Su Young Woo, 2020. "Evaluation of the Importance of Some East Asian Tree Species for Refinement of Air Quality by Estimating Air Pollution Tolerance Index, Anticipated Performance Index, and Air Pollutant Uptake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Ge Shi & Peng Ye & Liang Ding & Agustin Quinones & Yang Li & Nan Jiang, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Land Use and Cover Change from 1990 to 2010: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-19, March.
    16. Teodoro Semeraro & Roberta Aretano & Amilcare Barca & Alessandro Pomes & Cecilia Del Giudice & Elisa Gatto & Marcello Lenucci & Riccardo Buccolieri & Rohinton Emmanuel & Zhi Gao & Alessandra Scognamig, 2020. "A Conceptual Framework to Design Green Infrastructure: Ecosystem Services as an Opportunity for Creating Shared Value in Ground Photovoltaic Systems," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-28, July.
    17. Kai Jin & Fei Wang & Deliang Chen & Qiao Jiao & Lei Xia & Luuk Fleskens & Xingmin Mu, 2015. "Assessment of urban effect on observed warming trends during 1955–2012 over China: a case of 45 cities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 631-643, October.
    18. Maria Silva Dias & Juliana Dias & Leila Carvalho & Edmilson Freitas & Pedro Silva Dias, 2013. "Changes in extreme daily rainfall for São Paulo, Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 705-722, February.
    19. Sridhara Nayak & Suman Maity & Kuvar S. Singh & Hara Prasad Nayak & Soma Dutta, 2021. "Influence of the Changes in Land-Use and Land Cover on Temperature over Northern and North-Eastern India," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, January.
    20. Sakketa, Tekalign Gutu, 2022. "Urbanisation and rural development in developing countries: A review of pathways and impacts," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2022, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:17:y:2006:i:5:p:685-706. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.