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High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region

Author

Listed:
  • Seymour Laxon

    (University College London)

  • Neil Peacock

    (University College London)

  • Doug Smith

    (Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research)

Abstract

Possible future changes in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, and consequent changes in the ice-albedo feedback, represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature rise1,2. Knowledge of the natural variability of sea ice thickness is therefore critical for its representation in global climate models3,4. Numerical simulations suggest that Arctic ice thickness varies primarily on decadal timescales3,5,6 owing to changes in wind and ocean stresses on the ice7,8,9,10, but observations have been unable to provide a synoptic view of sea ice thickness, which is required to validate the model results3,6,9. Here we use an eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65° N to 81.5° N. Our data reveal a high-frequency interannual variability in mean Arctic ice thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt11, rather than by changes in circulation. Our results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of Arctic sea ice.

Suggested Citation

  • Seymour Laxon & Neil Peacock & Doug Smith, 2003. "High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region," Nature, Nature, vol. 425(6961), pages 947-950, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:425:y:2003:i:6961:d:10.1038_nature02050
    DOI: 10.1038/nature02050
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    Cited by:

    1. Maxim Ogurtsov & Markus Lindholm, 2006. "Uncertainties in Assessing Global Warming during the 20th Century: Disagreement between Key Data Sources," Energy & Environment, , vol. 17(5), pages 685-706, September.
    2. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Yao Ge & Aiguo Dai & Lin Wang & Ian Simmonds & Cunde Xiao & Lixin Wu & Yao Yao, 2023. "Origins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño–Southern Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. David Barber & Matthew Asplin & Richard Raddatz & Lauren Candlish & Scot Nickels & Stephanie Meakin & Klaus Hochheim & Jennifer Lukovich & Ryan Galley & Simon Prinsenberg, 2012. "Change and variability in sea ice during the 2007–2008 Canadian International Polar Year program," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(1), pages 115-133, November.

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