IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emeeco/v9y2017i1-3p38-74.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Aging Societies May Affect Global Growth Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Loser
  • Jose Fajgenbaum
  • Harpaul Alberto Kohli
  • Ieva Vilkelyte

Abstract

Over the next few decades, the United Nations (UN) has projected that the world will experience significant demographic shifts due to lower birth rates and longer lifespans. 1 The world’s population aged 65 and above will increase from 12 percent today to 16 percent in 2050, doubling the old-age dependency ratio 2 to 25.2. These demographic shifts would have material implications. Population aging and its dynamics will influence a number of economic variables and behavioral responses, particularly economic growth, productivity, labor force participation, consumption choice, personal savings and thus investment, and public finances. Population aging is unavoidable, but public policies and technological advances may limit some of its adverse effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Loser & Jose Fajgenbaum & Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Ieva Vilkelyte, 2017. "How Aging Societies May Affect Global Growth Prospects," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 9(1-3), pages 38-74, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:9:y:2017:i:1-3:p:38-74
    DOI: 10.1177/0974910117747770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0974910117747770
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0974910117747770?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
    2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    3. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen Mullen & David Powell, 2014. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 14-012, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2007. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 537-566, April.
    5. Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek & Ms. Monique Newiak & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Ms. Stefania Fabrizio & Mr. Kangni R Kpodar & Mr. Philippe Wingender & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Gerd Schwartz, 2013. "Women, Work, and the Economy: Macroeconomic Gains from Gender Equity," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2013/010, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2002. "Labor market effects of population aging," MEA discussion paper series 02011, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    7. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Sebastian Siegloch & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: a micro-approach for 27 EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 575-615, August.
    8. Onder, Harun & Pestieau, Pierre, 2014. "Is Aging Bad for the Economy? Maybe," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 144, pages 1-7, May.
    9. Era Dabla-Norris & Si Guo & Vikram Haksar & Minsuk Kim & Kalpana Kochhar & Kevin Wiseman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The New Normal; A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/3, International Monetary Fund.
    10. repec:ran:wpaper:1063 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Homi Kharas & Indermit Gill, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798.
    12. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Si Guo & Mr. V. Haksar & Minsuk Kim & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Kevin Wiseman & Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The New Normal: A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/003, International Monetary Fund.
    13. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    14. Katharina Frosch, 2009. "Do only new brooms sweep clean? A review on workforce age and innovation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-005, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Harpaul Alberto Kohli, 2011. "Model for Developing Global Growth Scenarios," Book Chapters, in: Harinder Kohli & Ashok Sharma & Anil Sood (ed.), Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 305-309, Emerging Markets Forum.
    16. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Y. Aaron Szyf & Drew Arnold, 2012. "Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 91-153, May.
    17. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek & Monique Newiak & Kalpana Kochhar & Stefania Fabrizio & Kangni R Kpodar & Philippe Wingender & Benedict J. Clements & Gerd Schwartz, 2013. "Women, Work, and the Economy; Macroeconomic Gains from Gender Equity," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/10, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition [Fécondité, capital humain et croissance économique au cours de la transition démographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 159-182, May.
    19. Gary Burtless, 2013. "The Impact of Population Aging and Delayed Retirement on Workforce Productivity," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2013-11, Center for Retirement Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ngassam, Sylvain B. & Asongu, Simplice A. & Ngueuleweu, Gildas Tiwang, 2024. "Social media and the fragility of Africa," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Singh, Yadawendra & Chakraborty, Lekha, 2024. "Tax Transfers and Demographic Transition: Empirical Evidence for 16th Finance Commission," Working Papers 24/417, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Wen-Hsin Huang & Yen-Ju Lin & Hsien-Feng Lee, 2019. "Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    3. Prettner, Klaus & Trimborn, Timo, 2012. "Demographic change and R&D-based economic growth: Reconciling theory and evidence," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 139, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    5. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "Automation and demographic change," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168215, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    7. Kilic Celik,Sinem & Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2020. "Subdued Potential Growth : Sources and Remedies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9177, The World Bank.
    8. Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Ms. Monique Newiak & Yang Yang & Ms. Edda Zoli, 2018. "Gender Equality: Which Policies Have the Biggest Bang for the Buck?," IMF Working Papers 2018/105, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    10. Rajag M. Nag & Johannes F. Linn & Harinder S. Kohli (ed.), 2016. "Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region's Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number centasia2050, Summer.
    11. Ana Lucia Abeliansky & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Population growth and automation density: theory and cross-country evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp315, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    12. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Natasha Mukherjee, 2011. "Potential Costs to Asia of the Middle Income Trap," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(3), pages 291-311, September.
    13. repec:got:cegedp:139 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Gunther Fink, 2009. "The Graying of Global Population and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," PGDA Working Papers 4709, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    15. Ben J. Heijdra & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Putting People Back into the Picture: Some Studies in Demographic Economics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 147-152, June.
    16. Sinha, Aashima & Kumar Sedai, Ashish & Bahadur Rahut, Dil & Sonobe, Tetsushi, 2024. "Well-being costs of unpaid care: Gendered evidence from a contextualized time-use survey in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    17. DUERNECKER Georg & SANCHEZ MARTINEZ Miguel, 2021. "Structural change and productivity growth in the European Union: Past, present and future," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2021-09, Joint Research Centre.
    18. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    19. Peter Gal & Alexander Hijzen, 2016. "The short-term impact of product market reforms: A cross-country firm-level analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1311, OECD Publishing.
    20. Anna Gdakowicz & Malgorzata Guzowska & Marta Hozer-Koćmiel & Leszek Gracz, 2023. "Gender Equality and Economic Growth in BSR and EAP Countries: A Quantitative Approach," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 354-378.
    21. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2019. "Fertility and the business cycle: the European case," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1289-1319, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:9:y:2017:i:1-3:p:38-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.emergingmarketsforum.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.