IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/compsc/v28y2011i1p5-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting in International Relations

Author

Listed:
  • Gerald Schneider

    (University of Konstanz & Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO)

  • Nils Petter Gleditsch

    (PRIO & Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim)

  • Sabine Carey

    (University of Mannheim & Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO)

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald Schneider & Nils Petter Gleditsch & Sabine Carey, 2011. "Forecasting in International Relations," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 5-14, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:5-14
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894210388079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894210388079
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0738894210388079?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerald Schneider & Daniel Finke & Stefanie Bailer, 2010. "Bargaining Power in the European Union: An Evaluation of Competing Game‐Theoretic Models," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 58(1), pages 85-103, February.
    2. Jack A. Goldstone & Robert H. Bates & David L. Epstein & Ted Robert Gurr & Michael B. Lustik & Monty G. Marshall & Jay Ulfelder & Mark Woodward, 2010. "A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 190-208, January.
    3. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
    4. Gerald Schneider & Daniel Finke & Stefanie Bailer, 2010. "Bargaining Power in the European Union: An Evaluation of Competing Game-Theoretic Models," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 58, pages 85-103, February.
    5. Beck, Nathaniel & King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2000. "Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(1), pages 21-35, March.
    6. Ward, Michael D. & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2002. "Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 244-260, July.
    7. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
    2. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R. & Schrodt, Philip A., 2014. "Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 944-962.
    3. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    4. Galanis, S. & Ioannou, C. & Kotronis, S., 2019. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 20/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
    5. James P Cross, 2013. "Everyone’s a winner (almost): Bargaining success in the Council of Ministers of the European Union," European Union Politics, , vol. 14(1), pages 70-94, March.
    6. Jeffry Frieden & Stefanie Walter, 2019. "Analyzing inter-state negotiations in the Eurozone crisis and beyond," European Union Politics, , vol. 20(1), pages 134-151, March.
    7. Khan, Urmee & Lieli, Robert P., 2018. "Information flow between prediction markets, polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 696-710.
    8. Victor Tiberius & Christoph Rasche, 2011. "Prognosemärkte," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 467-472, April.
    9. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    10. Aliakbari, Elmira & McKitrick, Ross, 2018. "Information aggregation in a prediction market for climate outcomes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 97-106.
    11. Jonathan B Slapin, 2014. "Measurement, model testing, and legislative influence in the European Union," European Union Politics, , vol. 15(1), pages 24-42, March.
    12. Barbara Dluhosch & Nikolai Ziegler, 2011. "The paradox of weakness in the politics of trade integration," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 325-354, December.
    13. Nils B. Weidmann & Michael D. Ward, 2010. "Predicting Conflict in Space and Time," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(6), pages 883-901, December.
    14. Schadner, Wolfgang, 2022. "U.S. Politics from a multifractal perspective," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    15. Nicola Maaser & Alexander Mayer, 2016. "Codecision in context: implications for the balance of power in the EU," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 46(1), pages 213-237, January.
    16. Tobias Böhmelt & Tina Freyburg, 2013. "The temporal dimension of the credibility of EU conditionality and candidate states’ compliance with the acquis communautaire, 1998–2009," European Union Politics, , vol. 14(2), pages 250-272, June.
    17. Daniel Finke & Stefanie Bailer, 2019. "Crisis bargaining in the European Union: Formal rules or market pressure?," European Union Politics, , vol. 20(1), pages 109-133, March.
    18. Stefano Benati & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2021. "Voting power on a graph connected political space with an application to decision-making in the Council of the European Union," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 57(4), pages 733-761, November.
    19. Daniel Finke, 2017. "Underneath the culture of consensus: Transparency, credible commitments and voting in the Council of Ministers," European Union Politics, , vol. 18(3), pages 339-361, September.
    20. Gilian van den Hengel & Philip Hans Franses, 2020. "Forecasting Social Conflicts in Africa Using an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-25, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:5-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.