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Revisiting Predictions of War Duration

Author

Listed:
  • D. Scott Bennett

    (Pennsylvania State University, USA)

  • Allan C. Stam

    (University of Michigan, USA)

Abstract

We reexamine the fit of Bennett and Stam's 1996 model of war duration, correcting errors in the reported estimates of prediction accuracy.We discuss how to assess fit in the absence of standard or widely accepted measures of fit in duration models. We introduce a proportional reduction in error measure for duration models and report new estimates of model fit from the Bennett and Stam model.The model does significantly reduce prediction error relative to a naïve model.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Scott Bennett & Allan C. Stam, 2009. "Revisiting Predictions of War Duration," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(3), pages 256-267, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:26:y:2009:i:3:p:256-267
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894209104553
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darren Filson & Suzanne Werner, 2004. "Bargaining and Fighting: The Impact of Regime Type on War Onset, Duration, and Outcomes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(2), pages 296-313, April.
    2. Branislav L. Slantchev, 2004. "How Initiators End Their Wars: The Duration of Warfare and the Terms of Peace," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 813-829, October.
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