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Development of a Method to Assess the Relevant Variables and the Probability of Financial Distress

Author

Listed:
  • Harvey R. Crapp

    (Australian Bank Limited.)

  • Maxwell Stevenson

    (Kuring-gai College of Advanced Education, Australia.)

Abstract

This study develops a method to select variables, and to specify the relative importance of those variables, as input for failure models. In addition, our method provides estimates of the failure probabilities of organisations at a point in time. The results of tests of our method on Australian credit unions are intuitively appealing, given the recent experiences of the Australian financial market generally, and the credit union industry in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Harvey R. Crapp & Maxwell Stevenson, 1987. "Development of a Method to Assess the Relevant Variables and the Probability of Financial Distress," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 12(2), pages 221-236, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:12:y:1987:i:2:p:221-236
    DOI: 10.1177/031289628701200205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Izan, H. Y., 1984. "Corporate distress in Australia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 303-320, June.
    2. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    3. Altman, Edward I & Loris, Bettina, 1976. "A Financial Early Warning System for Over-the-Counter Broker-Dealers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1201-1217, September.
    4. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    5. Pinches, George E., 1980. "Factors influencing classification results from multiple discriminant analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 429-456, December.
    6. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    7. Edward I. Altman, 1973. "Predicting Railroad Bankruptcies in America," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 184-211, Spring.
    8. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    9. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    10. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    11. Altman, Edward I., 1977. "Predicting performance in the savings and loan association industry," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 443-466, October.
    12. Altman, Edward I. & Margaine, Michel & Schlosser, Michel & Vernimmen, Pierre, 1974. "Financial and Statistical Analysis for Commercial Loan Evaluation: A French Experience," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 195-211, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria H. Kim & Graham Partington, 2015. "Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(1), pages 135-160, February.
    2. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche, 2018. "Multi-criteria ranking of corporate distress prediction models: empirical evaluation and methodological contributions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 853-886, December.

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