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Demographic Forces and Turning Points in the American City, 1950-2040

Author

Listed:
  • Dowell Myers

    (School of Policy, Planning, and Development at the University of Southern California)

  • John Pitkin

    (Analysis and Forecasting, Inc.)

Abstract

The effects of two major demographic forces are traced between 1950 and 2040: the formation and aging of the baby boom generation and the reduction and subsequent return of large-scale immigration. These forces combine to mark several major turning points essential for understanding the changing urban condition. These include the depopulation of “gray areas†that spurred urban renewal in the 1950s, the gentrification initiated in the 1970s, and the collapse of apartment construction in the 1990s followed by its recovery in the 2000s. Looking forward, the authors address the substantial impact of settled immigrants who are now upwardly mobile. Finally, the authors consider the impacts of the sell-off of housing by the aging of the massive baby boom generation that is anticipated to take place beginning in 2020 and discuss whether the expected housing glut can be absorbed by a relatively smaller and less advantaged younger generation in the 2040s.

Suggested Citation

  • Dowell Myers & John Pitkin, 2009. "Demographic Forces and Turning Points in the American City, 1950-2040," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 626(1), pages 91-111, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:626:y:2009:i:1:p:91-111
    DOI: 10.1177/0002716209344838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard A. Easterlin, 1968. "Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east68-1.
    2. Pitkin, John R. & Myers, Dowell, 1994. "The Specification of Demographic Effects on Housing Demand: Avoiding the Age-Cohort Fallacy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 240-250, September.
    3. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    4. Simon Kuznets & Ernest Rubin, 1954. "Immigration and the Foreign Born," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn54-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew McMillan & Sugie Lee, 2017. "Smart growth characteristics and the spatial pattern of multifamily housing in US metropolitan areas," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(15), pages 3500-3523, November.

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