IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/luk/wpaper/8518.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographi Forces and Turning Points in the American City, 1950-2040

Author

Listed:
  • Dowell Myers
  • John Pitkin

Abstract

The effects of two major demographic forces are traced between 1950 and 2040: the formation and aging of the baby boom generation and the reduction and subsequent return of large-scale immigration. These forces combine to mark several major turning points essential for understanding the changing urban condition. These include the depopulation of "gray areas" that spurred urban renewal in the 1950s, the gentrification initiated in the 1970s, and the collapse of apartment construction in the 1990s followed by its recovery in the 2000s. Looking forward, the authors address the substantial impact of settled immigrants who are now upwardly mobile. Finally, the authors consider the impacts of the sell-off of housing by the aging of the massive baby boom generation that is anticipated to take place beginning in 2020 and discuss whether the expected housing glut can be absorbed by a relatively smaller and less advantaged younger generation in the 2040s.

Suggested Citation

  • Dowell Myers & John Pitkin, 2009. "Demographi Forces and Turning Points in the American City, 1950-2040," Working Paper 8518, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    • Handle: RePEc:luk:wpaper:8518
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://lusk.usc.edu/sites/default/files/working_papers/wp_2009_1003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard A. Easterlin, 1968. "Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east68-1, June.
    2. anonymous, 1985. "Reflections on the New Zealand financial sector," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 48, august.
    3. Pitkin, John R. & Myers, Dowell, 1994. "The Specification of Demographic Effects on Housing Demand: Avoiding the Age-Cohort Fallacy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 240-250, September.
    4. anonymous, 1985. "A quarterly review of the New Zealand economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 48, august.
    5. anonymous, 1985. "Monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 48, june.
    6. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    7. anonymous, 1985. "Quarterly review of the New Zealand economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 48, november.
    8. anonymous, 1985. "A quarterly review of the New Zealand economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 48, may.
    9. Simon Kuznets & Ernest Rubin, 1954. "Immigration and the Foreign Born," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn54-1, June.
    10. Simon Kuznets & Ernest Rubin, 1954. "Appendices to "Immigration and the Foreign Born"," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration and the Foreign Born, pages 85-107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew McMillan & Sugie Lee, 2017. "Smart growth characteristics and the spatial pattern of multifamily housing in US metropolitan areas," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(15), pages 3500-3523, November.
    2. Myers, Dowell & Lee, Hyojung & Simmons, Patrick A., 2020. "Cohort insights into recovery of Millennial homeownership after the Great Recession," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dowell Myers & John Pitkin, 2009. "Demographic Forces and Turning Points in the American City, 1950-2040," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 626(1), pages 91-111, November.
    2. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    3. Timothy J. Hatton & Zachary Ward, 2024. "International Migration in the Atlantic Economy 1850–1940," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 3, pages 507-535, Springer.
    4. Ward, Zachary, 2017. "Birds of passage: Return migration, self-selection and immigration quotas," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 37-52.
    5. Kris Inwood & Chris Minns & Fraser Summerfield, 2016. "Reverse assimilation? Immigrants in the Canadian labour market during the Great Depression," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 20(3), pages 299-321.
    6. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2006. "Inequality and Schooling Responses to Globalization Forces: Lessons from History," CEPR Discussion Papers 5892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Marek Loužek, 2005. "Makroekonomické aspekty porodnosti [Macroeconomic aspects of fertility]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(6), pages 733-746.
    8. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2008. "Demography and housing demand—what can we learn from residential construction data?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 521-539, July.
    9. Biavaschi, Costanza, 2013. "Fifty Years of Compositional Changes in U.S. Out-Migration, 1908-1957," IZA Discussion Papers 7258, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. J. David Brown & Serife Genc & Julie L. Hotchkiss & Myriam Quispe-Agnoli, 2014. "Undocumented Workers' Employment Across U.S. Business Cycles," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 653-670, July.
    11. John Killick, 2014. "Transatlantic steerage fares, British and Irish migration, and return migration, 1815–60," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(1), pages 170-191, February.
    12. Kuismanen, Mika & Laakso, Seppo & Loikkanen, Heikki A., 1999. "Demographic Factors and the Demand for Housing in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area," Discussion Papers 191, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Lall Ramrattan & Michael Szenberg, 2004. "The Sensitivity Analysis of the FHA Technique of Housing Market Analysis: The Effect of Ratios and Variables, and Their Perturbations on Family and Elderly Demand Estimates," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 48(1), pages 61-88, March.
    14. Myers, Dowell & Lee, Hyojung & Simmons, Patrick A., 2020. "Cohort insights into recovery of Millennial homeownership after the Great Recession," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    15. Thomas F. Crossley & Yuri Ostrovsky, 2003. "A Synthetic Cohort Analysis of Canadian Housing Careers," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 107, McMaster University.
    16. Bandiera, Oriana & Rasul, Imran & Viarengo, Martina, 2013. "The Making of Modern America: Migratory Flows in the Age of Mass Migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 23-47.
    17. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2006. "Inequality and schooling responses to globalization forces: lessons from history," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 225-248.
    18. Yu Chen & Kenneth Gibb & Chris Leishman & Robert Wright, 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 523-542, November.
    19. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    20. Peter S. Yoo, 1994. "The baby boom and international capital flows," Working Papers 1994-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:luk:wpaper:8518. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Steins (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lcuscus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.