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Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91

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  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • Jesse M. Abraham

Abstract

Real metropolitan house prices have been quite volatile during the 1977-91 period, with half of our 30 areas having annual increases of above 15 percent in a single year and a third having decreases greater than 7.5 percent. Drawing on Capozza and Helsley's models of real land prices, we express real house price changes as a function of the rate of change in employment, real income growth, real construction cost inflation, and changes in real after-tax interest rates. Our explanatory power varies widely by region. We do quite well for the half of our cities in the more stable Upper Midwest and Southeast, less well for the coastal cities, and dismally for the two Texas cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Patric H. Hendershott & Jesse M. Abraham, 1992. "Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91," NBER Working Papers 4196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    2. Hendershott, Patric H., 1991. "Are real house prices likely to decline by 47 percent?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 553-563, December.
    3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
    4. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
    5. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991. "The Measurement and Determinants of Single‐Family House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 353-382, September.
    6. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2019. "Modelling Housing Market Cycles in Global Cities," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201901, University of Turin.
    2. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2020. "Housing market cycles in large urban areas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 257-267.
    3. Yan Song & Jiang Zhou & Yingjie Zhang & Dingxin Wu & Honghai Xu, 2022. "How Much Are Amenities Worth? An Empirical Study on Urban Land and Housing Price Differentials across Chinese Cities," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Factors Affecting Housing Prices: International Evidence," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 87-96, December.

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