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A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System

Author

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  • Emilian DOBRESCU

    (The Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, NIER, Romanian Academy.)

Abstract

The paper presents the 2018 Version of the Romanian macromodel. Among its distinguishing features comparatively with previous variants can be mentioned: a) the econometric procedures are based on statistical series for 1989-2017 years, significantly longer than the previous version (1989-2011); b) there were improved methodological algorithms of approximating some missing data, especially those which concern the tangible fixed assets at constant prices, as a measure of the physical capital of economy; c) in order to ameliorate the operational tractability of the model, the specification of some relationships was revisited, and the modalities of ensuring inter-equation compatibility were also simplified. This version is structured into three main blocks: (i) the production factors and output; (ii) the domestic absorption and foreign trade; and (iii) the prices and exchange rate, the national budget revenues and expenditures, the public debt. The experimental simulations confirmed the predictive plausibility of this new version.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilian DOBRESCU, 2018. "A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2018:i:4:p:5-20
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_18/rjef4_2018p5-20.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. Saman, Corina & Pauna, Bianca, 2013. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 159-171, June.
    8. Emilian Dobrescu, 2013. "Updating the Romanian Economic Macromodel," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-31, December.
    9. Emilian Dobrescu, 2018. "Functional trinity of public finance in an emerging economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    10. Charles L. Ballard & John Karl Scholz & John B. Shoven, 1987. "The Value-Added Tax: A General Equilibrium Look at Its Efficiency and Incidence," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 445-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2019. "The New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - The Sectoral Module," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-31, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macromodel; accounting and behavioral relationships; simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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