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Controversies over the Size of the Public Budget

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  • Emilian DOBRESCU

    (Centre for Macroeconomic Modeling, NIER, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

This paper examines two potential positions in the debate over the public budget size. Notably, the indicator used is inherently unstable, and shifting opinions regarding the public budget’s size might be a psychosocial mirror of the real-world volatility itself. However, this indicator may be dominated by a hidden variable in given historical frameworks, and the ensuing debates under this hypothesis might reflect the effective public budget’s deviations from the applicable contextual attractor. Testing the temporal features of a large database, the paper supports the second assumption. The possible attractors are approximated using the VAR algorithm and the BARS Curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilian DOBRESCU, 2016. "Controversies over the Size of the Public Budget," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-34, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2016:i:4:p:5-34
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    public budget size; attractor; VAR; BARS curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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