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Predictability And Complexity In Macroeconomics. The Case Of Gross Fixed Capital Formation In The Romanian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Scutaru, Cornelia

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Saman, Corina

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Stanica, Cristian

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

There is a relationship between predictability and complexity. The problem of evaluating the complexity of the macroeconomic phenomenon can be reduced to decomposition into its principal components (which may have, in their turn, a certain degree of complexity) and to identify its common sources of evolution that are predictable. In this paper, we evaluate the predictability of economic indicators and continue with its decomposition until the simplest sources allowed by available statistical data are obtained, then use this predictable sources to construct a forecasting model.

Suggested Citation

  • Scutaru, Cornelia & Saman, Corina & Stanica, Cristian, 2008. "Predictability And Complexity In Macroeconomics. The Case Of Gross Fixed Capital Formation In The Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 196-205, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:4:p:196-205
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matei, Marius, 2010. "Risk analysis in the evaluation of the international investment opportunities. Advances in modelling and forecasting volatility for risk assessment purposes," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 100201, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    2. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Financial System Fragility Models," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 110211, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    3. Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Stanica, Cristian, 2010. "Prospects for the Evolution of the Economic Sectors’ Behavior," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 120-142.
    4. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Models of Financial System Fragility," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 230-256, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    predictability; complexity; principal components; consumption; investment; foreign trade; time series forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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