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Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000 –2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?

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  • F. Gulcin Ozkan

Abstract

This paper attempts to explore the underlying causes of twin crises experienced by Turkey in November 2000 and February 2001. We study an extensive set of leading indicators of crises that are drawn from the existing literature. Our results identify three sets of vulnerabilities in the Turkish economy in triggering the financial crisis and bringing about the collapse of the Turkish lira. These are: first, the weak external position caused by excessive debt burden combined with the loss of competitiveness; second, the weak fiscal position resulting from the record levels of interest payments on domestic borrowing; and most importantly, third, weaknesses in the financial and banking sector. Given these observations, we argue that the success of financial sector reform is instrumental not only for putting the economy on a sustainable recovery path but also for reducing the likelihood of similar crises in the future. The general lesson to be drawn from this experience is that a sound financial system is a pre‐condition for the successful operation of a fixed exchange rate regime.

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  • F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2005. "Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000 –2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 541-572, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:28:y:2005:i:4:p:541-572
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00691.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ozkaya, Ata, 2014. "Creative accounting practices and measurement methods: Evidence from Turkey," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-27.
    2. Mete FERIDUN, 2008. "Currency Crises In Emerging Markets: The Case Of Post‐Liberalization Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 46(4), pages 386-427, December.
    3. Canan Yildirim, 2009. "Moral Hazard, Corporate Governance, and Bank Failure: Evidence from The 2000-2001 Turkish Crises," Working Papers 486, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2009.
    4. Mete Feridun, 2009. "Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 65-81, March.
    5. Arslan, Ozgur & Florackis, Chrisostomos & Ozkan, Aydin, 2006. "The role of cash holdings in reducing investment-cash flow sensitivity: Evidence from a financial crisis period in an emerging market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 320-338, December.
    6. Mihai Macovei, 2009. "Growth and economic crises in Turkey: leaving behind a turbulent past?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 386, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    8. Salih Turan Katircioglu & Mete Feridun, 2011. "Do macroeconomic fundamentals affect exchange market pressure? Evidence from bounds testing approach for Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 295-300.
    9. Shakur, Shamim & Obben, James & Nugroho, Agus Eko, 2005. "Financial Sector Reforms and Currency Crisis: The Indonesian Experience," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 1(2), pages 1-12.
    10. Necmiddin Bagdadioglu & Catherine Waddams Price & Thomas Weyman-Jones, 2006. "Measuring Potential Gains from Mergers among Electricity Distribution Companies in Turkey using a Non-Parametric Model," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Competition Policy (CCP) 2006-13, Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    11. Unver, Mustafa & Dogru, Bulent, 2015. "The Determinants of Economic Fragility: Case of the Fragile Five Countries," MPRA Paper 68734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    12. Adem Gök & Nihat Tak, 2023. "Dating Currency Crisis and Assessing the Determinants Based on Meta Fuzzy Index Functions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(3), pages 1225-1250, March.
    13. David A. Steinberg & Karrie J. Koesel & Nicolas W. Thompson, 2015. "Political Regimes and Currency Crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 337-361, November.
    14. Ozkaya, Ata, 2013. "The Domestic Debt Intolerance and Bad Equilibrium: An Empirical Default Model," GIAM Working Papers 13-1, Galatasaray University Economic Research Center.
    15. Mustafa Kilinç & Zübeyir Kilinç & M. Ibrahim Turhan, 2012. "Resilience of the Turkish Economy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S5), pages 19-34, November.
    16. Kesjana Halili & Hatice Jenkins, 2010. "An Evaluation of the Risk Management Practices of Commercial Banks in North Cyprus," Development Discussion Papers 2010-01, JDI Executive Programs.
    17. Ata Özkaya, 2014. "Hidden Overhang of Domestic Debt and Its Role in the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome: An Empirical Contingent Liabilities Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 73-94.

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