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Pourquoi les enfants africains quittent-ils l’école? Un modèle hiérarchique multinomial des abandons dans l’éducation primaire au Sénégal

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  • Diagne, Abdoulaye

    (Consortium pour la recherche économique et sociale (CRES), Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop and estimate generalized hierarchical models of dropping out in Senegalese primary education using individual level data for an entire cohort of children 1996 to 2001 and a 2003 retrospective survey in the households of the same cohort of pupils. The model’s estimates imply that children of households belonging to some socio professional groups are more exposed to dropping out. The results confirm also that probability for girls to leave school is higher than that of boys. The presence in the household of youths attending secondary school has a positive impact on the retention of children in primary school. Others results are the positive influence of book availability and the negative impact of rare education supply in the community. Girls have a higher probability to be an early leaver but a high proportion of girls in the first primary school year reduces this probability. Résumé : Dans cet article nous analysons les abandons dans l’éducation primaire au Sénégal à l’aide de modèles hiérarchiques généralisés en utilisant des données issues d’une enquête longitudinale de 1996 à 2001 et d’une enquête rétrospective de 2003 sur les ménages des mêmes élèves. Les résultats font apparaître la plus forte exposition au risque de décrochage scolaire des élèves issus de groupes exerçant certaines activités professionnelles. Les résultats confirment aussi que les filles sont plus victimes de l’abandon scolaire que les garçons. L’existence dans la famille d’enfants fréquentant le collège ou le lycée exerce un effet favorable sur la rétention des élèves à l’école. Les autres résultats confirment l’influence positive de la disponibilité des livres sur la rétention des élèves et l’effet négatif qu’exerce un niveau d’échec scolaire élevé ou la rareté de l’offre éducative dans la communauté. Enfin, les abandons précoces frappent davantage les filles que les garçons, mais l’existence d’une proportion importante de filles dans la première année d’études réduit la probabilité d’abandonner. Les politiques éducatives disposent ainsi de nombreux leviers pour réduire fortement les décrochages scolaires.

Suggested Citation

  • Diagne, Abdoulaye, 2010. "Pourquoi les enfants africains quittent-ils l’école? Un modèle hiérarchique multinomial des abandons dans l’éducation primaire au Sénégal," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(3), pages 319-354, septembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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