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The Effects of Workers’ Remittances on Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports Dynamics - New Evidence from Pakistan

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  • Adnan Khurshid
  • Yin Kedong
  • Adrian Cantemir Calin
  • Khalid Khan

Abstract

This study examines the impact of remittances on the exchange rate and exports in Pakistan, using the system GMM aproach on annual data series. We carry out a full sample Granger causality test along with the sub-sample rolling window approach using monthly data series to find the causal relationship between remittances (REM) and the exchange rate (EXR). The System GMM results reveal that remittances depreciate the exchange rate and have a positive influence on export competitiveness. In addition to this, the remittance inflow appreciates the exchange rate only if it is used for savings and negatively affects competitiveness if it is channeled towards consumption. The change in exchange rate regime from multiple to flexible depreciated the exchange rate while, the global financial crises uplifted the currency rate and negatively affect the exports. The results show the bidirectional causal relationship between remittances and the exchange rate. The outcomes further reveal that the parameters in the VAR model are unstable, which is a clear indication of the presence of structural changes. The rolling window estimation approach with time-varying characteristics finds bi-directional causality between REM and the EXR in the different sub-samples. The results of this study fall in line with the portfolio model proposed by Mussa (1984) which states that the flow of remittances causes appreciation. The sub-sample causality is related to significant economic events, which means the results are not a statistical artifact.

Suggested Citation

  • Adnan Khurshid & Yin Kedong & Adrian Cantemir Calin & Khalid Khan, 2017. "The Effects of Workers’ Remittances on Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports Dynamics - New Evidence from Pakistan," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(63), pages 29-52, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:20:y:2017:i:63:p:29-52
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    Cited by:

    1. Adnan KHURSHID & Yin KEDONG & Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN & Zhaosu MENG & Naila NAZIR, 2018. "Remittances Inflows, Gain of Foreign Exchange or Trade Loss? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle-Income Groups," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-41, December.
    2. Sun QIANG & Adnan KHURSHID & Adrian Cantemir CALIN & Khalid KHAN, 2019. "Do Remittances Contribute to the Development of Financial Institutions? New Evidence from the Developing World," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 78-97, June.
    3. Dorsaf Srdid & Wafa Ghardallou, 2019. "Remittances and Disaggregated Country Risk Ratings in Tunisia: An ARDL Approach," Working Papers 1326, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    4. KHURSHID, Adnan & KEDONG, Yin & CĂLIN, Adrian Cantemir & POPOVICI, Oana Cristina, 2017. "A Note On The Relationship Linking Remittances And Financial Development In Pakistan," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 21(4), pages 6-26.
    5. Anam Yasir & Umar Safdar & Yasir Javaid, 2022. "Herd behaviour in foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Adnan KHURSHID & Yin KEDONG & Adrian Cantemir CALIN & Cristina Georgiana ZELDEA & Sun QIANG & Duan WENQI, 2020. "Is the Relationship between Remittances and Economic Growth Influenced by the Governance and Development of the Financial Sector? New Evidence from the Developing Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 37-56, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Remittances; Exchange rate; bootstrap rolling window; Granger Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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