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The Cyclical Behavior of the Price‐Cost Markup

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  • CHRISTOPHER J. NEKARDA
  • VALERIE A. RAMEY

Abstract

A countercyclical markup of price over marginal cost is a key transmission mechanism for demand shocks in New Keynesian (NK) models. This paper reexamines the foundation of those models by studying the cyclicality of the price‐cost markup in the private economy. We find that how the markup is measured matters for its unconditional cyclicality. Measures of the markup based on the inverse of the labor share are moderately procyclical, but are moderately countercyclical for some generalizations of the production function. NK models predict that the cyclicality of the markup should vary depending on the nature of the shock. Consistent with the NK model, we find that the markup is procyclical conditional on total factor productivity shocks and countercyclical conditional on investment‐specific technology shocks. In contrast, we find that the markup increases in response to a positive demand shock. Thus, the transmission mechanism for the effects of demand shocks in sticky‐price NK models is not consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. Nekarda & Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Price‐Cost Markup," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 319-353, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:52:y:2020:i:s2:p:319-353
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12755
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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