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When is Nonfundamentalness in SVARs a Real Problem?

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Beaudry

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Patrick Feve

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

  • Alain Guay

    (UQAM)

  • Franck Portier

    (University College London)

Abstract

In SVARs, identification of structural shocks can be subject to nonfundamentalness, as the econometrician may have an information set smaller than the economic agents' one. How serious is that problem from a quantitative point of view? In this paper we propose a simple diagnostic for the quantitative importance of nonfundamentalness in structural VARs. The diagnostic is of interest as nonfundamentalness is not an either/or question, and its quantitative implications can be more or less severe. As an illustration, we apply our diagnostic to the identification of TFP news shocks and we find that nonfundamentalness is of little quantitatively importance in that context. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Beaudry & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2019. "When is Nonfundamentalness in SVARs a Real Problem?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 221-243, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:18-478
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2019.03.011
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrea Gazzani, 2020. "News and noise bubbles in the housing market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 46-72, April.
    3. Di Casola, Paola & Sichlimiris, Spyridon, 2018. "Towards Technology-News-Driven Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 360, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Lippi, Marco & Sala, Luca, 2020. "Common Component Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 15529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Angelini, Giovanni & Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Under the same (Chole)sky: DNK models, timing restrictions and recursive identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Fève, Patrick & Collard, Fabrice & Guay, Alain, 2024. "Believe it or not, it’s all about Beliefs!," TSE Working Papers 24-1539, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    7. Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Yang, Bo, 2021. "Are global spillovers complementary or competitive? Need for international policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Tiziana Assenza & Fabrice Collard & Patrick Fève & Stefanie J. Huber, 2024. "From Buzz to Bust: How Fake news Shapes the Business Cycle," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 058, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    9. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2022. "Dynamic Identification in VARs," Working Papers 22-08, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    10. Sugaipov, Deni, 2022. "Estimating the impact of terms of trade news shocks on the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 39-67.
    11. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2017. "Do Misperceptions about Demand Matter? Theory and Evidence," Working Papers halshs-01518467, HAL.
    12. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2022. "Mind the Gap! Stylized Dynamic Facts and Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 104-135, October.
    13. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Stephen Wright & Bo Yang, 2019. "Information, VARs and DSGE Models," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1619, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    14. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2023. "Are the effects of uncertainty shocks big or small?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Bolboaca Maria & Fischer Sarah, 2021. "Unraveling News: Reconciling Conflicting Evidence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 695-743, June.
    16. Kang, Jihye & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Government spending news and surprise shocks: It’s the timing and persistence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NonFundamentalness; Business cycles; SVARs; News shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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