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When is Nonfundamentalness in SVARs a Real Problem?

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Beaudry

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Patrick Feve

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

  • Alain Guay

    (UQAM)

  • Franck Portier

    (University College London)

Abstract

In SVARs, identification of structural shocks can be subject to nonfundamentalness, as the econometrician may have an information set smaller than the economic agents' one. How serious is that problem from a quantitative point of view? In this paper we propose a simple diagnostic for the quantitative importance of nonfundamentalness in structural VARs. The diagnostic is of interest as nonfundamentalness is not an either/or question, and its quantitative implications can be more or less severe. As an illustration, we apply our diagnostic to the identification of TFP news shocks and we find that nonfundamentalness is of little quantitatively importance in that context. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Beaudry & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2019. "When is Nonfundamentalness in SVARs a Real Problem?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 221-243, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:18-478
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2019.03.011
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    3. Di Casola, Paola & Sichlimiris, Spyridon, 2018. "Towards Technology-News-Driven Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 360, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Lippi, Marco & Sala, Luca, 2020. "Common Component Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 15529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    8. Tiziana Assenza & Fabrice Collard & Patrick Fève & Stefanie J. Huber, 2024. "From Buzz to Bust: How Fake news Shapes the Business Cycle," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 058, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    9. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2022. "Dynamic Identification in VARs," Working Papers 22-08, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NonFundamentalness; Business cycles; SVARs; News shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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