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Modelo de Proyección Trimestral: Una Actualización Hasta 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Aguirre, John
  • Arrieta, Johar
  • Castillo, Luis E.
  • Florián, David
  • Ledesma, Alan
  • Martinez, Jefferson
  • Morales, Valeria
  • Vélez, Amilcar

Abstract

Este documento presenta una actualización del Modelo de Proyección Trimestral utilizado entre el 2014 y 2019 por la Gerencia Central de Estudios Económicos del BCRP con fines de proyección macroeconómica y de simulación de distintos escenarios de política monetaria y de riesgo. Se comentan los principales cambios en la estructura del modelo respecto de la última versión completa publicada. Asimismo, se documentan los resultados de la reestimación de los parámetros del modelo realizada con datos entre 2002-2017 y se evalúan las consecuencias de dichos cambios en términos de las propiedades dinámicas del modelo. En adición, se reporta la estimación de variables no observables implícitas del modelo entre las que destaca la brecha del producto y el crecimiento potencial del PBI. Finalmente, se narra la historia de los principales agregados macroeconómicos desde la perspectiva del modelo mediante un ejercicio de descomposición histórica.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguirre, John & Arrieta, Johar & Castillo, Luis E. & Florián, David & Ledesma, Alan & Martinez, Jefferson & Morales, Valeria & Vélez, Amilcar, 2023. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral: Una Actualización Hasta 2019," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 42, pages 9-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-42-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelo semiestructural; proyecciones macroeconómicas; variables no observables.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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